Back to back successful cards for us from a betting perspective after a 10-4 night at wild UFC 281. There were some wild stoppages, entertaining bouts and heartbreak for a lot of Oceanians like myself who were rooting for Israel Adesanya. The UFC keeps rolling with a fight night card this weekend headlined by Derrick Lewis and Sergey Spivak, I see a lot of betting values in the underdogs! Here are my value picks and best bets.
VALUE PICK #1 | Jennifer Maia H2H @$2.50
Jennifer Maia is a well-rounded competitor that is short for the division, but makes up for it with her strength and aggression. She has faced elite competition which explains her recent skid, but I am confident she will bounce back this weekend.
She is facing Marnya Moroz, a slick BJJ practitioner with fast hands on the feet. Maia has the tools to make this a very difficult fight for Moroz, and I am shocked that with Maia’s strength, skills and experience she is an underdog. I do see areas where Moroz can win this fight, but at this price, there’s too much value with the Brazilian.
VALUE PICK #2 | Ion Cutelaba H2H @$1.28
Ion Cutelaba is an overly aggressive heavy hitter on the feet, who is a very successful takedown artist when he channels his grappling skills.
His opponent is the tall and technical Kennedy Nzechukwu coming off a statement win against Karl Roberson. Kennedy is a good striker and has showcased durability through his tenure so far, but I believe Cutelaba’s wrestling can spark success on the ground or could open opportunities for Cutelaba’s bombs to connect on the feet.
BEST BET #1 | Brady Hiestand H2H @$1.60
At just 23 years old, Brady Hiestand looks to be the complete package already. He was unable to win the Ultimate Fighter finale against Ricky Turcios, but he showed moments of genuine potential throughout the show which makes me believe he is a true blue chip prospect.
Fernie Garcia has shown some fast hands and slick grappling skills, but I feel that Brady can control this fight wherever it takes place, and I am very excited to see how his career pans out.
BEST BET #2 | Sergey Spivak H2H @$1.55
Everything that Sergey Spivak does well feeds into the weaknesses of Derrick Lewis. Sergey is a relentless grappler that is elite at holding opponents down, where he can unload a wealth of ground and pound until either the referee intervenes or a submission opportunity presents itself. Sergey has some holes in his striking which the heavy handed Derrick Lewis will look to capitalize on, however, the discrepancies in the wrestling, grappling and cardio make this a stylistic nightmare for Lewis unless he can land power shots early.
Either way, this fight will not last very long. Which leads us to our next section of Round Bets.
Overs or Unders
There were plenty of stoppages at UFC 281 and we had some success on our round predictions. Our two best bets of Adesanya vs Pereira UNDER 2.5 and Poirier vs Chandler OVER 1.5 were both winners, so we’re looking to continue the profit streak!
Thanks for tuning in once again, I hope you all enjoy the fights this weekend! If you are having a bet this weekend make sure you do your own research and gamble responsibly.