This is the 28th edition of RAPID FIRE QUICK PICKS for UFC Vegas 64. I went 6-5 for last week's Vegas 63 and broke even on all of my betting/DFS action. I didn't lose any money but I didn't make any either so hopefully this week will work out a little better for me.
TAMARIS VIDAL-155(6-1) VS RAMONA+135(6-4):
I'm thinking Pascual will finally notch her first UFC victory at the expense of the debuting Vidal but in all honesty that is more of a guess than anything else. This is a low level fight and neither fighter inspires any real confidence. PASCUAL has very poor striking but she does have a decent ground game and I think her prior UFC level experience will be the difference here. That said I'm not betting on this fight because I could see Vidal getting the better of the striking exchanges so it wouldn't surprise me at all if she managed to win her debut. This is the definition of a hard pass for me.
CARLOS CANDELARIO +230(8-2) VS JAKE HADLEY-275 (8-1):
HADLEY severely under performed in his UFC debut versus ALLEN NASCIMENTO. He was a highly touted prospect but he looked like he was out of his depth in that one. Perhaps that was the result of debut jitters but I do not feel like I can bet on him until he shows me something. CANDELARIO has lost both of his fights under the UFC banner but he's had some good moments in the Octagon. He has shown himself to be battle tested and ready to go. From what I've seen these two are very evenly matched so picking a side is rather difficult but I'm going to say HADLEY gets it done by the thinnest of margins, however that is a very low confidence pick. I think FGTD is probably the safer way to go here but I'm just going to pass altogether on this one.
LIUDVIK SHOLINIAN+185(9-3-1) VS JOHNNY MUNOZ-215 (11-2):
I'm going with Munoz in this match up. Again this is a low confidence pick but I feel like he probably has the more well rounded skill set. This is another close fight and Sholinian should be fairly competitive here. I'm picking MUNOZ to win but I will not be betting this one. As far as viable underdogs go you could do much worse than Sholinian but I'm not confident enough to bet either side here.
JIN YU FREY+110(12-5) VS POLYANA VIANA-130(11-7):
I'm picking FREY to get it done here, she has the better striking and she probably has the wrestling advantage. VIANA is probably the better jiujitsu player but I think she will have a hard time getting this fight to the ground. This is yet another close fight and another low confidence pick but I do feel like FREY is on the right side. If I bet on this fight I will be playing FREY by decision.
MARIO BAUTISTA-225(10-2) VS BENITO LOPEZ+190((10-1):
It's been over 3 years since we've seen Lopez in the Octagon so it's difficult to say what he will look like upon his return but he showed a lot of promise in his earlier appearances. On the other hand BAUTISTA has looked great in his last two outings and there is a lot to be said for an active fighter who has momentum on his side. BAUTISTA is very well rounded and all signs point to him continuing his ascent up the rankings. Without overthinking this one I'm picking BAUTISTA and I might use him in a parlay.
MIRANDA MAVERICK-600(12-4) VS SHANNA YOUNG+450(9-5):
I'm going to be on MAVERICK here. I think she has a significant advantage in the grappling department and she should be able to impose her will once this fight hits the ground. YOUNG is probably the better striker on paper but the difference is negligible. MAVERICK is the superior fighter and I expect her to cruise to a decision victory here if she doesn't finish YOUNG. I will be playing MAVERICK ITD and I will probably use her in a parlay.
DARRICK MINNER+170(26-13) VS SHA YILAN-200(38-10):
I'm going with YILAN in this matchup. I think MINNER has the better ground game but his danger factor becomes almost non-existent after the 1st round. I'm not a big fan of YILAN but if he can get out of the first round I expect him to take over and possibly even finish MINNER late. I'm going to play the YILAN ML and hope he can survive the initial onslaught from MINNER and I might hedge that with a small play on MINNER in round 1.
JAILTON ALMEIDA-660(17-2) VS MAXIM GRISHIN +490(32-9-2):
It's pretty hard to pick against ALMEIDA given what he's been able to do thus far in his UFC campaign but the odds on him are juiced to the point where they are unplayable. GRISHIN is a well rounded fighter who has shown himself to be quite capable but I think he will be at a significant grappling disadvantage when he faces ALMEIDA. IF I bet this fight it will be on ALMEIDA by submission but I'm not sure the odds on that prop will be worth the squeeze so I will probably just pass on this one.
GRANT DAWSON-230 (18-1-1) VS MARK MADSEN+195(12-0):
EVERYBODY'S 0 has to go at some point and I think that time has finally come for the “Olympian” MADSEN. DAWSON has been very dominant thus far and he seems to improve every time out. He has fantastic wrestling/grappling and his striking is definitely serviceable. MADSEN is a world class Olympic caliber wrestler in his own right so this will not be an easy fight for DAWSON who is a short notice replacement here. In fact it would not surprise me in the least if MADSEN pulled off the upset but ultimately I'm going to pick DAWSON for the win. I don't think I will be betting on this fight though because I could see either man prevailing in this spot.
TAGIR ULANBEKOV-190(13-2) VS NATE MANESS+160(14-2):
I feel like this fight is a coin toss. ULANBEKOV has the grappling advantage but MANESS is the superior striker and he can hold his own on the ground. I really don't like to bet against Khabib Nurmagomedov students but I feel like MANESS has what it takes to get it done here so I'm taking the dog shot on him in this spot. ULANBEKOV has not exactly been dominant thus far and MANESS has a knack for pulling off the upset so I'm going for it here. Hopefully MANESS finds a way to get his hand raised.
CHASE SHERMAN-110(16-10) VS JOSH PARISIAN-110(15-5):
When we talk about coin flip fights this is what we are referring to. I'm picking SHERMAN to win here based on his last outing versus Jared VANDERAA but I don't think I will be betting on this fight. PARISIAN has been less than stellar thus far but if ever there was a winnable fight for him this would be it. However I have a lot more faith in the skills of SHERMAN here.
DANIEL RODRIGUEZ-105(26-10) VS NEIL MAGNY-115(17-2):
I'm picking MAGNY to win here but this is another hard pass for me. RODRIGUEZ is a dangerous striker and he has skills on the ground but MAGNY has insane cardio and pace. He is usually able to break his opponents down over 3 rounds but I don't know if he will be able to break RODRIGUEZ and if RODRIGUEZ connects cleanly it could be all over. However I think that MAGNY will be able to stay defensively sound and win a hard fought decision over three rounds. This is another excellent co-main event and whoever wins here will have to dig deep. I think that will be MAGNY but I'm not confident enough to bet him against the likes of RODRIGUEZ.
MARINA RODRIGUEZ-210?(16-1-2)VS AMANDA LEMOS+180(12-2-1):
I'm going to take the dog shot on LEMOS in this main event match up. I think RODRIGUEZ is the better technical striker by a slim margin but LEMOS has a very distinct power advantage and she is probably the slightly better grappler here. This is a hard fight to predict with any degree of certainty and I am a big fan of both ladies so I really don't have a great read here but I'm going with the underdog in LEMOS who has consistently proven herself to be physically imposing no matter who she fights. This should be an excellent main event between two top tier fighters for as long as it lasts.
As always fade me or follow me at your own peril and above all enjoy the fights.