It is almost time for our layover between pay per view events to be over with. One more stop along the road and that stop is UFC Vegas 64. This slate is a bit up and down in my opinion, there are definitely fights that I am very eager to watch, but there are some others that I don’t really have any interest in at all. My expectation is in order to see success on this slate you will need to find the right dogs, because there are many of them that could pull out victories on this slate.
With so many live dogs available to choose from, a stars and scrubs approach is almost a guarantee, but there are going to be a few fights that are almost must targets on the slate. I believe that these fights will give you big scores provided you end up on the right side of them.
Below you will see my recommended fights to target on the FanDuel slate for UFC Vegas 64. If you have any questions please don’t hesitate to tweet @WeWantPicks on Twitter and they will definitely get back to you ASAP.
FIGHT #1 TO TARGET (-225 FDGTD)
CHASE SHERMAN ($16) vs. JOSH PARISIAN ($14)
This is the heavyweight fight you didn’t know you needed. The fight not a single soul has ever asked for. Here it is however, in all its glory. One way or another these two big guys are likely to find a big score as well.
Chase Sherman is the favorite here, and that even looks strange to type. In his last fight Sherman came out and handled business for the first time in a long time, in a fire fight against Jared Vanderra. Before that it had been a while since Sherman had tasted victory, being submitted and knocked out numerous times. Sherman is a striker, and for what it's worth does seem to have solid power. The issue for Sherman is that he isn’t very technical and is fairly terrible in every other aspect of MMA.
On the other side of the cage is Josh Parisian, who is another low level heavyweight. His volume is a bit lower than Sherman, and he is the more hittable fighter with a 41% striking defense. Parisian also has a bit of takedown upside to balance out the lower volume and weaker defense. An interesting thing to note is that while in the UFC Josh Parisian has only lost in fights where he has been taken down – which is unlikely to happen here.
Personally I think I will be taking the value side of this equation, and getting who I believe to be the better fighter in Josh Parisian, but a Chase Sherman knockout win is definitely a possibility. Whichever side here should score very well on FanDuel.
FIGHT #2 TO TARGET (-175 FDGTD)
SHAYILAN NUERDANBIEKE ($18) vs. DARRICK MINNER ($12)
This is such a polarizing fight, and under any other circumstances it would be wise to avoid a fighter as low volume as Neurdanbieke on FanDuel altogether. In this case however, his opponent is a fast starter that is extra live in the early part of the fight and a potential finish as the fight extends.
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke is something of a chain wrestler, who uses a powerful (albeit low volume) striking approach to close distance and get his hands on you. He isn’t incredibly successful at achieving his takdowns, having only a 32% takedown accuracy, but he makes up for it with being relentless. Nuerdanbieke likes to use a high pressure approach that wears on his opponents as the fight extends.
Darrick Minner on the other hand, who also wrestles a fair amount himself, is a balls to the wall fighter that likes to go out and get it done early. Minner does gas quite a bit in his fights as they get into the second and third round, but that early onslaught has led to many finishes in his long career.
This one will be a finish I believe, if it ends early then Minner likely won. If it ends late then Nuerdanbieke probably finished a gassed Minner. Either way, lots of takedowns boosting the score in either direction, lots of submission potential, and a high chance at a finish makes this fight a must target.
FIGHT #3 TO TARGET (-150 FDGTD)
MARINA RODRIGUEZ ($22) vs. AMANDA LEMOS ($16)
Here we have a clash of two of the most hyped up contenders in the women’s strawweight division. Both of these women have been carrying quite a bit of fanfare behind them over the last several fights in their careers and this fight will decide who’s hype train keeps rolling, and who’s will fall off a cliff.
Marina Rodriguez is a highly technical striker that has pretty much dissected every fighter she has faced, with the exception of her fight against current champion Carla Esparza that turned into a wrestling clinic. Rodriguez strikes at an intense pace with solid defense and pinpoint accuracy. The outstanding issue for her is that she is susceptible to being taken down, having found herself on the mat at least once in all but two of her UFC contests.
Amanda Lemos on the other hand is also an impressive striker, but may be a bit more well rounded. Her volume is a touch lower than Rodriguez, but she does seem to pack more power. She does wrestle a bit, and if she is smart, she would make that a focal part of her gameplan in this matchup. One of the concerns I would have on the Lemos side is her cardio. We have seen her seem to slow down in three round fights before, and in the only UFC fight she had scheduled for five she was submitted in the first round. There may be some questions if this extends to the fourth and fifth round for her.
Even if there is no finish here, this is two high volume strikers in a five round matchup which is sure to be FanDuel gold. Pick your side, play both sides in multi-entry, and enjoy what is sure to be a fun women’s fight.
GOOD LUCK THIS WEEKEND
Good look to all heading into this event. If you are watching it at home make sure to follow along with @WeWantPicks on Twitter for live bets. Also make sure to tweet your winning lineups at us and we will do our best to recognize your greatness.
Enjoy the event, and make sure to keep it locked on We Want Picks for tons of great MMA content.