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UFC Vegas 62 Quick Picks and Bets

by | Oct 7, 2022 | Fight Preview

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This the 25th edition of RAPID FIRE QUICK PICKS. As always I will share my picks and my actual bets for UFC Vegas 62. In the spirit of full transparency  I went 5-5 on my ufc Vegas 61 predictions so my confidence is not exactly high at this point but as I told Angelo Bodetti of We Want Picks, I am not a quitter. Win, lose or draw, we move onto the next and try to do better than the last. This is another tough card full of volatile matchups but I'm up for the challenge.

DUSKO TODOROVIC-200(11-3) vs JORDAN WRIGHT+170(12-3):

I have to go with TODOROVIC in this one, but this is a no bet for me because both of these men are kill or be killed fighters. WRIGHT is particularly prone to exciting finishes but you just never know what side of them he will end up on. TODOROVIC is probably the more skilled fighter and he has faced the higher level of competition but much like WRIGHT there is no telling what side of the finish he will land on. The safest play for this one is FDGTD but I'm expecting it to be heavy chalk so if I play that prop I'm probably to use it as a parlay piece, beyond that I just wouldn't be very comfortable betting either side. However TODOROVIC is my pick and I expect him to win by knockout but I'm not ruling out a submission victory for him because he does have a decent ground game. Ultimately though this a coin toss because either man could starch the other in the blink of an eye, so proceed with caution folks.

 

JACOB MALKOUN+125(6-2)VS NICK MAXIMOV-145(8-1):

I like MALKOUN here, he has shown himself to be consistently undervalued as an underdog and quite frankly I'm not sure what to make of MAXIMOV's suffocating wrestling heavy style. I was on MAXIMOV in his last outing against Andre Petrovski and I got stung so perhaps I'm falling into the recency bias trap but this is a wrestler vs wrestler style of fight and I think MALKOUN has a slight edge when it comes to striking. I expect this fight to go to the scorecards and to my mind the wrong guy is favoured so I'm happy to take the plus money dog shot on MALKOUN in what could very well play out to be a split decision. I am also thinking about parlaying this FGTD with TODOROVIC/WRIGHT FDGTD. My pick is MALKOUN and I will be on his money line. 

 

RAPHAEL ASSUNCAO+260(27-9) vs VICTOR HENRY-315(22-5):

I have to go with HENRY in this one. After what he did to Raoni Barcelona in his UFC debut there's no way I can pick against him. ASSUNCAO was one of the best bantamweights in the world for a long time but he is an aging veteran who has shown very clear signs of decline in recent years.  HENRY is not exactly a young fighter for the weight class either but he definitely appears to have more in the tank. I have to believe that if he can outclass the amazingly skilled Barcelos, he will likely be able to do the same to an aging ASSUNCAO. I don't think there will be a finish here so I'm leaning HENRY by decision but I'm still undecided as to how I want to play this, I usually like to parlay two favourites that I feel confident about but that approach hasn't served me very well of late so I might just pay the chalk here, either way my pick is HENRY and I will be betting on him in this spot.

 

MIKE JACKSON+490(1-1) VS PETE RODRIGUEZ-660(4-1):

I'm picking RODRIGUEZ to get it done here but there is just no way I can bet his ML  at these odds even though they are probably accurate. If anything I will sprinkle JACKSON ML on pure principle.This will be RODRIGUEZ'S second ufc fight and at 4-1 with a 100% finish rate (this includes a 7-2 amateur record) I think he will be able to hand JACKSON his second pro loss. JACKSON seems to be one of these guys that is brought in to lose against high profile debuts (ie Mickey GALL, CM PUNK & DEAN BARRY) but that doesn't mean he can't win because strange shit happens all the time. I have tremendous respect and admiration for all the athletes of the ufc but I don't really understand how JACKSON has maintained his spot on the roster.He was choked out in short order by GALL, He  got a decision victory over PUNK that was overturned to a no contest and he got a lucky DQ victory against BARRY so to my mind his ceiling is not exactly high. I will say though that JACKSON Is a slippery fighter who seems to have slick boxing and there is no denying his unwavering self confidence but I have to believe that he will be exposed in brutal fashion at some point. I'm thinking that RODRIGUEZ might be the guy to do it but again these odds are keeping me off this fight. If I decide to have any action on this one I might have a small play on RODRIGUEZ by KO/TKO or I'll sprinkle Jackson on principle but in all likelihood I will probably just pass, there's just not enough meat on the bone for my liking. Part of me would love to see JACKSON come through as a massive underdog but I'm simply not prepared to risk my money on a sentiment. My pick is RODRIGUEZ and I think he probably gets it done by KO.

 

MANA MARTINEZ-150(9-3) vs BRANDON DAVIS+130(14-9):

DAVIS looked absolutely terrible in his last outing versus Danaa Batgerel, which was actually his return to the UFC after being cut and relegated to regional promotions. I bet on DAVIS in that one because he is usually a dog with zero quit in him but he was thoroughly outclassed and outmatched by Batgerel and I remember feeling rather foolish for taking the dog shot on him. I don't necessarily rate MARTINEZ as highly as I rate Batgerel but based on their recent histories I think MARTINEZ gets it done against DAVIS. That said, I'm not touching this fight. DAVIS has the edge in experience and strength of schedule but the youth and power advantage are squarely on the MARTINEZ side and I'm inclined to think that this fight will look a lot like the BATGEREL fight in that MARTINEZ probably finds the knockout at some point. The only reason I'm not betting on MARTINEZ is because DAVIS has shown himself to be a savage when he's at his best and I just don't know which version of him will show up on fight night. He was cut from the UFC, he worked his way back and then he looked terrible in his return fight so I can't trust him under those circumstances. Skill for skill I'd say DAVIS is likely the better MMA fighter but that isn't enough for me to take the dog shot on the aging veteran. My pick is MARTINEZ but I'm passing on this one.

 

CJ VERGARA+200 (10-3-1)VS TATSURO TAIRA-240(11-0):

TAIRA was very impressive in his debut verse Carlos Candelario and he's the rightful favourite in this matchup but I'm going to be on VERGARA here. I think he's a great underdog play at 2 to 1. He's slightly more experienced and he has fought the higher level of competition. If VERGARA comes with the same intensity and output that he showed against Kleidson Rodriguez in his last outing, this will be a very close fight.  VERGARA is a savage and he has the skills to get it done against almost anyone in this division so I'm hoping he will hand TAIRA his first pro loss. That said, TAIRA is not someone we should sleep on or overlook. He has excellent jiujitsu and his striking looked rather crisp in his ufc debut which was a bit of a surprise to me based on the tape I had watched. I just don't think he should be a -240 against the likes of VERGARA so I'm going to take the plus money on the underdog and hope for the best. I admit I will be extremely pissed off at myself if this doesn't work out for me but as far as underdogs go I really feel like VERGARA is one of the better ones on this card and I would be more pissed off at myself if I bet TAIRA as the favourite and he lost so I'm playing the VERGARA ML for better or for worse, let the chips fall where they may.

 

PIERA RODRIGUEZ-180(8-0) vs SAM HUGHES+155(7-4):

RODRIGUEZ is probably the rightful favourite here. She likes to sit down on her punches, she has good strike selection, and her wrestling is definitely serviceable. However I would give HUGHES a slight edge when it comes grappling and ground fighting. I'm a little conflicted about who to pick in this matchup but my intuition tells me that RODRIGUEZ gets it done by a razor close split decision. Hughes has shown marked improvement in her overall game since her UFC debut and she is on a  two fight win streak so she is a viable underdog in this spot but I'm going with the favourite in RODRIGUEZ. I think she is the better all around fighter and I expect that she has also made marked improvements since her DWCS fight. I'm thinking about playing her to win by decision but the safer play is probably her money line, I'd rather pay the chalk on a straight bet because losing one leg of a two fighter parlay absolutely sucks and losing a method of victory prop is equally unpleasant. I'm not expecting a knockout or a submission from either side here but you just never know what can happen at the ufc level so I will probably mitigate my risk and stick to the RODRIGUEZ money line. Hopefully she remains undefeated and cashes for me. 

 

BRANDON ROYVAL +155(14-6) vs ASKAR ASKAROV-180(14-1-1):

“Raw dog” ROYVAL is one of the most exciting fighters on the entire UFC roster, when we're talking about a fighter who should never be counted out, he's it. He's chaos incarnate and the very definition of unpredictable. I love his unorthodox striking as well as his spastic jiujitsu and I really believe he can beat anyone in the division on any given Saturday night night. However, I'm going to pick ASKAROV for the win here. His technical wrestling and fight IQ are simply too much for me to overlook. This is another no bet for me though because as I said ROYVAL should never be counted out. This is definitely a FOTN candidate and there is no telling how it'll play out so I'm not prepared to bet on or against either guy. Conventional wisdom dictates that this is a dog or pass situation but given the bad run I've been on, I'm way too gun shy to actually bet a side here. I'll be cheering for Raw dog but my gut tells me that ASKAROV finds a way to get it done.

 

JONATHAN MARTINEZ-170(16-4) vs CUB SWANSON+145(28-12):

 I'm going to be on MARTINEZ by decision here. If this was 3 or 4  years ago I would be all over SWANSON but he's an aging veteran at this point and MARTINEZ is clearly on the come up which means he's probably continuing to make big improvements to what is an already well rounded skill set. Both of these guys are excellent strikers and both of them have a great ground game so I'm not sure there is a big skill disparity on either side. For me it just comes down to age and career trajectory  so I have to go with the younger man in MARTINEZ. I don't think he finishes SWANSON so I'm going with the decision prop. I've been stung betting against SWANSON before so hopefully he won't do it to me again. MARTINEZ by decision.

 

MISHA CIRKUNOV+180(15-8) vs ALONZO MENIFIELD -210(12-3):

I'm on MENIFIELD here. The bottom line is that he looked great in his last outing, while CIRKUNOV has been less than stellar in his last three outings. I think CIRKUNOV probably has the better jiujitsu but MENIFIELD will be the bigger,stronger, faster man and to my mind he has a much higher ceiling. That doesn't mean that CIRKUNOV can't get it done here but I think this is MENEFIELD all day. I'm going to use him in a two leg parlay and hope with all my being that he comes through for me. Losing streaks are no fun folks, they can make you overly tentative but I'm going to trust in MENEFIELD'S athleticism and power. I think he gets it done by KO but I'm not going to risk the method of victory prop.

 

ALEXA GRASSO-195(14-3) vs VIVIANE ARAUJO+165(11-3):

I'm sure a lot of people would disagree with me but I don't think this is a terrible main event. Both of these ladies are very game and they are both well rounded. GRASSO has the edge in strength of schedule and experience but I really liked what I saw from ARAUJO in her last outing versus Andrea Lee where she managed an impressive unanimous decision victory after being badly hurt early in that fight. To me that shows tremendous heart and composure and it gave me a whole new respect for ARAUJO. If nothing else I think she puts up one hell of a fight and gives GRASSO all she can handle. My problem is that I've lost every single time I've bet against GRASSO and she is on a three fight win streak so I'm not sure I want to go against her again. I think this is dog or pass. ARAUJO is a dark horse and she might be undervalued in this spot. I don't think I can pick a side here but I think FGTD is the play, if I was going to bet a side I'd probably talk myself into taking a shot at the ARAUJO ML but in all likelihood I'm just going to stick with the over or FGTD.

I'm looking forward to this card which, as it turns out, is the appetizer for what should be an EPIC UFC 280 the following week. I'm really hoping to snap my losing skid here so I can head into 280 with a renewed sense of confidence but no matter what happens I think we are in for some great fights over these next two events.

As always fade me or follow me at your own peril and above all enjoy the fights!

Frank Jodouin

Contributing Analyst

I started betting on fights in 2016, and have watched every single fight on every live event for almost seven years running. To put it plainly, I am a fight junkie, and Dana White is my dealer. I write content because I'm so passionate about this sport and I am honored to be a member of the We Want Picks team. I love to talk fights and share the knowledge I have accrued over the years as I continue to learn about the greatest the sport on planet earth.

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