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UFC Vegas 61 FanDuel Breakdown

by | Sep 30, 2022 | FanDuel

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That week off was both brutal and refreshing, but we are back for the layover card that is UFC Vegas 61. This event takes place at the Apex Center, but is rumored to be privately rented out by Mark Zuckerburg and friends, so no media or fans will be allowed in the arena. As much as I feel for the fighters, who likely would have enjoyed their friends and family being present, this doesn’t really affect those of us watching at home at all. Business as usual. 

This article however is not business as usual this week, as We Want Picks has created a special premium members section for FanDuel now. This section offers core plays, fighter pools, and fighter rankings by salary group. So rather than write up something that will leave you conflicted between this information and that information, the format is going to change again. From now and through the foreseeable future I will be writing up the top three fights to target for FanDuel GPP entries. That way my input here in this article can act as a companion of sorts to the premium membership section rather than competing with it. 

Below you will see my recommended fights to target on the FanDuel slate for UFC Vegas 61. If you have any questions please don’t hesitate to tweet @WeWantPicks on Twitter and they will definitely get back to you ASAP. 

 

FIGHT #1 TO TARGET (-500 FDGTD)

RANDY COSTA ($22) vs. GUIDO CANNETTI ($9)

This fight is almost guaranteed to end inside the distance, which makes it ideal to target. The question to be answered is, which side of the fight should you be on? The smart money is saying Costa, but he is not exactly the most trustworthy fighter of all time. Here are some things to consider when targeting this fight on your lineup.

Randy Costa is the much younger fighter, and generally speaking when you have an age advantage that is this wide, it plays in your favor. Randy Costa has never seen the third round in the UFC either, so you can be sure that Costa will be out there looking to kill or be killed. The volume that Costa is capable of could potentially be overwhelming as well, averaging almost seven significant strikes per minute. Unfortunately he has been getting hit with almost eight per minute in return.

Guido Cannetti comes into this fight off of a surprise win in his last outing against Kris Moutinho. That fight was setup for Moutinho to be rewarded with a win after having his head boxed off against Sean O’Malley, but no one told Cannetti that. Guido went out there and handled business, unfortunately the task in front of him this time is much more difficult. The only way I could see someone rationalizing the Cannetti side of this fight would be if you believe that Cannetti will shell up and weather the early storm from Costa and take him in the later rounds. 

 

FIGHT #2 TO TARGET (-200 FDGTD)

SODIQ YUSUFF ($23) vs. DON SHAINIS ($8)

Sodiq Yusuff is one of the next big things in the UFC. He has quite a bit of hype following him, and from what I have seen, it is well warranted. Shainis is making his UFC debut, and is being fed to Yusuff essentially. That being said, Shainis is tough, and he is not without a path to victory in this fight.

Sodiq Yusuff comes in with only one loss on his UFC record, against Arnold Allen. That loss will likely age very well, as Arnold isn’t too far from competing for a title. In his other fights Yusuff has put on a striking clinic and won his fights in dominant fashion. He will have the size and reach advantage in this fight as well. The one area that he has shown a bit of struggle with is his takedown defense, being taken down six times in his last three fights. The other area of reservation I have with Yusuff is that he really doesn’t seem to finish fights. He finished Gabriel Benitez who is either finishing or getting finished in all of his fights, and a no name jobber in the UFC. All of his other fights have gone the distance.  

Don Shainis has shown the ability to get the fight to the ground and keep it there at the regional level. If he can make that happen with Yusuff, which is easier said than done despite the abysmal takedown defense from Yusuff, he has a clear path to victory in this matchup. The biggest issue will be getting to a point where he has the opportunity to get the fight to the ground. Shainis has a style of putting his head down and absorbing whatever to get against the cage for takedowns and that could play against him trying it on such an accomplished striker as Sodiq Yusuff.

 

FIGHT #3 TO TARGET (-280 FDGTD)

ILIR LATIFI ($17) vs. ALEKSEI OLEINIK ($14)

The reason that I have this fight listed as third despite having a higher FDGTD line is because I don’t believe this fight will play out the way the odds say it will. The odds have Ilir Latifi winning by knockout. I need to see it to believe it. I do believe Latifi wins the fight more often than not, but I do not believe he is the kind of striker that is going to go out and overwhelm Oleinik. 

Latifi is a slow fighter that gets his wins by lay and pray. He is incredibly low volume, averaging only 1.84 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.86 per minute. Latifi has not knocked anyone out since 2016, and when it comes to UFC knockouts I couldn’t tell you who any of the fighters he has knocked out were. His only notable finish win in the UFC was a submission win against OSP back in 2018. I do not believe that Latifi will be able to employ his normal strategy of takedowns because being on the ground is the last place you want to be with Aleksei Oleinik. So in my humble opinion, to win this fight Latifi will need to keep distance as much as possible and just try to win it via low volume boxing. 

Aleksei Oleinik has been around the block a time or ten. He is seasoned, weathered, washed up, and any other cute name you can think of for a fighter that is fighting way past his prime. That being said, it's still fun seeing him fight. Oleinik is a submission specialist, and I am going to say the quiet part out loud here, I think we will see him grab another victory by submission here. I believe Latifi will take this fight to the ground or allow it to play out in the clinch, and somewhere along the line find himself in a not so favorable position. Wishful thinking? Perhaps, but I just cannot get behind Latifi in any fashion. Smart money says you should though. 

 

GOOD LUCK THIS WEEKEND

Good look to all heading into this event. If you are watching it at home make sure to follow along with @WeWantPicks on Twitter for live bets. Also make sure to tweet your winning lineups at us and we will do our best to recognize your greatness. 

Enjoy the event, and make sure to keep it locked on We Want Picks for tons of great MMA content.

Josh Allen

Contributing Analyst

Hey everyone! My name is Josh Allen, no relation to the FNP guys. I am a proud father, freelance web designer, and future gulag spades champion. I am a fan of the NFL and the UFC. I do a little part time analysis work for the latter. Take whatever you read from me with a grain of salt as I am far more fan than anything else. Do your own research and make your own decisions. I am not a financial advisor and take no responsibility for your plays.

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