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UFC Vegas 59 Complete Preview and Betting Guide

by | Aug 1, 2022 | Fight Preview

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This is the 18th edition of RAPID FIRE QUICK PICKS for UFC Vegas 59: HILL VS SANTOS. Which appears to be another solid offering from the world’s premier MMA promotion. While this is not a high profile PPV event it does feature fantastic main & co-main event match ups as well as the TUF 30 finals which have been historically fun fights for the most part.  Beyond that there are several intriguing match ups throughout the card that will almost certainly entertain the MMA masses. Hopefully we are able to correctly identify the lucrative plays and come away with some profit. 

In terms of my predictions for UFC 277 I went a very respectable 10-3 for the second week in a row but somehow I managed to lose $300 which is in stark contrast with last week’s $3K night. My losses were almost exclusively sustained in the DFS arena and they are clearly a direct result of poor line up construction yet again. While I do not dwell on disappointing outcomes I am painfully aware that the $300 I lost would have turned a substantial profit had I stuck to straight ML bets but coulda, shoulda, woulda is an egregious waste of time and energy when it comes to MMA betting and it is not conducive to the ultimate goal which is: to be profitable. With that in mind we leave UFC 277 in the rearview mirror and we look to Vegas 59 for some closure and redemption.

 

MAYRA BUENO SILVA-170(8-2-1) VS STEPHANIE EGGER+150(7-2): 

I am somewhat conflicted about this match up. I have done rather well betting EGGER as an underdog in her last 2 outings. However, I’m thinking that BUENO SILVA might prove to be a bad stylistic match for EGGER in this one. BUENO SILVA fights in the classic chute box pressure forward fighting style and I think it could prove to be a problem for EGGER. Of course EGGER is a world class judoka, I expect that she will likely be able to find some throws here and possibly submit BUENO SILVA or at least control her on the ground and win minutes but BUENO SILVA is a BJJ blackbelt in her own right who is also very capable of winning the grappling exchanges if the fight goes there. As much as I have enjoyed the profitable ride with EGGER, I have to go with BUENO SILVA for the win here. If she keeps this fight standing she should absolutely outpoint EGGER and it is very probable that she could find the finish before the final bell. I haven’t officially decided to bet on this one but my pick is BUENO SILVA and that is who I will be putting my money on if I decided to take the plunge. 

 

CORY MCKENNA-190(6-2) VS MIRANDA GRANGER+165(6-2): 

This is going to be a hard pass for me from a betting standpoint but I do think that MCKENNA is the right side here. However her last outing against Elise REED did not inspire a great deal of confidence from a betting standpoint. GRANGER has been less than stellar thus far in her UFC campaign and she has not stepped into the Octagon in almost 2 years which leads me to believe that she will probably be dealing with some degree of ring rust. The expression “armbar from guard” comes to the forefront when I ponder this fight. I think MCKENNA is probably the better fighter in this matchup but I can’t overlook her very lackluster performance against Elise REED the last time she fought. A performance that has me questioning MCKENNA’S ability and fight IQ. As far as who should win though I land squarely on the MCKENNA side but there is just no way I can bet any money on either one of these ladies until they actually show me something. The pick is MCKENNA but this is a hard pass from a betting standpoint. 

 

JASON WITT+180(19-8) VS JOSH QUINLAN-210(5-0): 

Once again we are faced with the recurring DO or DON’T dilemma of modern day MMA debuts.  As in, DO I or DON’T I employ the DWCS fade.  In this case I’m leaning towards DON’T but that is based more on my lack of confidence in WITT rather than actual confidence in QUINLAN. QUINLAN is clearly the better stand up fighter here. He’s much faster than WITT, his strikes are more accurate and he has superior all around defense but at 5-0 as a pro, his career is still very much in it’s infancy. WITT has the wrestling/grappling advantage here and he will likely have a slight size advantage as well. In terms of experience and strength of schedule the advantage is squarely on the WITT side. There is also the matter of QUINLAN testing positive for performance enhancing substances of the “banned by USADA ” variety. A transgression that he fully admits to and accepts responsibility for which is indicative of someone who is mature enough to recognize that he made an ill advised decision that he has paid dearly for. When all is said and done though it’s the USADA issue that gives me tremendous pause when it comes to betting QUINLAN. It has me questioning the validity of his100% finish rate and it has me questioning how he will look when he is fighting without a pharmaceutical advantage. We’ve seen this movie play out on multiple occasions.  More often than not fighters coming off USADA suspensions simply do not possess the same level of strength and speed which often results in a lack of self confidence when they find themselves in a firefight that goes into the deep waters of rounds 2 and 3. I have very little in the way of confidence as far as an actual bet on WITT but may gut tells that he spoils QUINLAN’s UFC debut come Saturday night and because the bookies are hanging a juicy plus money tag on him, I almost feel obligated to take the shot on WITT here. The debut coupled with the lack of high level experience as well as the lack of performance enhancing drugs are all giant red flags that make it very difficult to play QUINLAN at chalk in this spot. As such I am opting to bet WITT at plus money but I will be proceeding with caution here. This is a very volatile match up where the winner will probably look like 3 to1 favorite in hindsight. For my sake I hope that it will be WITT. 

 

BRYAN BATTLE-220(8-1) VS TAKASHI SATO+180(16-5):

I’m going to be on BATTLE in this spot. He has looked pretty good to this point and it would not surprise me to see that he has made significant gains in terms of his skill set. His takedown defense is not bulletproof by any means but his get up game is very sharp. That said, I don’t expect Sato to attempt a lot of takedowns here. On paper SATO is probably the better striker but BATTLE is no slouch in that department and  he will have a significant size advantage here which could be problematic for SATO, especially if BATTLE decides to grapple. I think it will be a close fight that will likely go the distance but a KO on either side would not surprise me in the least. However I also think BATTLE by submission could be a sneaky play as well given SATO’s grappling deficiencies. I will be using BATTLE in a 2 fighter parlay and hope he continues to climb toward the top 20 of the division. Betting on TUF alumni has worked out quite well for me historically and I hope BATTLE will continue this positive trend on Saturday night. 

 

TERRENCE MCKINNEY-850(12-4) VS ERICK GONZALEZ+600(14-6):

I’m firmly on the MCKINNEY side here but at these odds there is absolutely no meat on the bone  in fact there’s barely any bone to speak of. I can’t even parlay him at this price which only leaves round and/or method of victory props from a betting standpoint. MCKINNEY ITD is the obvious play but I don’t mind MCKINNEY round 1 and/or 2. Maybe I’m overlooking GONZALEZ here and admittedly I am not overly familiar with him. I’m probably recency biased because of what Jim MILLER did to him in his UFC debut, although I believe that was a short notice replacement call up for GONZALEZ and to be fair he did manage to rock MILLER in that fight before MILLER put a classic vet lesson on him and closed the show early in the 2nd round. MCKINNEY is very explosive and he is especially dangerous early on, hence the rounds 1 and/or 2 and ITD leans. Based on everything I’ve seen out of these two I have to believe that MCKINNEY gets it done before the final bell in a rather violent fashion. 

SAM ALVEY+325(33-17) VS MICHAL OLEKSIEJCZUK-400(16-5): 

Once again I have to go with the heavy favorite but it’s way too chalky for my liking. Especially when you factor in that this will likely be a kickboxing match for as long as it lasts. ALVEY has dropped 7 of his last 8 fights and the 8th was a draw so he is effectively winless in his last 8 outings which has to be some kind of record for longest losing streak in the UFC without being cut from the roster. There are quite a few of us who thought that ALVEY’s last 4 or 5 fights were MUST wins for the sake of his job but evidently SAM has won the favor of the UFC brass because he is still around and he is still consistently putting on exciting fights. From a technical standpoint ALVEY is a decent fighter but he does not throw enough offense for my liking and I cannot bet on low volume. Especially against someone like OLEKSIEJCZUK who throws beautiful combinations that are proven to contain bonafide knockout power. As much as I enjoy “smiling” ALVEY I can’t bet on him until he snaps this insane losing skid. Based on the mathematical law of averages, an ALVEY upset could happen any time now because God knows this guy has to be due for a win soon. Mathematics aside though ALVEY has become an auto fade for me. I don’t mean to be disrespectful but at this point I simply cannot get past the 7 straight losses, some of which were extremely cringe if I’m being honest. I think OLEKSIEJCZUK is the superior striker and even though ALVEY is arguably the more well rounded fighter I personally don’t have the rocks to actually bet any kind of money on him. Just to reiterate though an ALVEY upset is definitely on the table here. If he gets his offense going and lands flush, things could get very dicey and that law of averages(a.k.a. variance)could rear its ugly head at any given moment. My pick is OLEKSIEJCZUK but at these odds there is a legitimate argument that this is a dog or pass scenario. However as I mentioned ALVEY is an auto fade for me until further notice so this one has to be a pass for me. 

 

ARIANE LIPSKI-175(14-7) VS PRISCILLA CACHOEIRA+145(11-4):

This should be lined way closer to pick’em odds in my opinion. I agree that LIPSKI should be a slight favorite but I’m just not seeing -175. I imagine it is priced this way because LIPSKI has the more technical striking and I suspect that she probably has a grappling advantage as well. However, pure heart and power are likely advantages of CACHOEIRA. That said, I favor CACHOEIRA in a firefight that goes into the later rounds. I’m going to pick CACHOEIRA for the win based on her gladiator-like toughness and LIPSKI’s inconsistency. I’m not sure I want any exposure to this though, even the plus money on CACHOEIRA feels a bit like a trap so at this time I’m going to say pass but there is a very good chance that I could change my mind by fight time and if that’s the case I will look to play the CACHOEIRA ML.

 

AUGUSTO SAKAI +180(15-4-1) VS SERGEY SPIVAC-210(14-3):

This is a continuation of a theme that has been prevalent over the last few weeks in that it is a very evenly matched HW bout that screams volatility. Much like PARISIAN/BAUDOT or LEWIS/PAVLOVICH this fight can go either way and it is very difficult to pick a winner with any degree of certainty until we see which fighter is more dialed in. Based on everything I know about these two fighters I have to side with SPIVAC in this spot. I’m not overly confident about it because to my mind these two are prototypical carbon copies of one and other in terms of metrics and fighting styles but I am picking SPIVAC for the win here and in all honesty that is more of a guess than an actual read. Conventional wisdom dictates that this type of fight is a dog or pass scenario but I have to go with my gut here and my gut is telling me that SPIVAC is the right side here. 

 

BROGAN WALKER+115 (8-2) VS JULIANA MILLER-135(3-1): 

I have faithfully watched every last episode of TUF 30 but I’d be lying if I said that I have a good read on this one. Both of these young ladies are still pretty green but WALKER has the edge in terms of experience with more than double the amount of pro fights as MILLER. BOTH ladies are pretty scrappy but I’d have to say that MILLER has the advantage in terms of grittiness and tenacity. In terms of technique WALKER is the far better striker but MILLER has superior jiujitsu and she should absolutely dominate if this hits the ground. In terms of who wants it more  I have to believe they are dead even. All this to say that this should be a really good fight and that I have no idea who will prevail. I’m going to say that MILLER will be crowned the TUF 30 champion but again this is more of a guess than an actual read. As I said before this is probably all WALKER on the feet and if it goes to ground I expect MILLER to out scramble and possibly even submit(or at least control) WALKER. Ultimately though I have to go with the scrappiness of MILLER to get it done but I will not be betting on this fight.

 

MOHAMMAD USMAN+195(8-2) VS ZAC PAUGA-230(6-0): 

Unlike the other TUF finale I think I have a much better read on this heavyweight match up. PAUGA is the more well rounded fighter here and his striking is vastly superior than USMAN’s in my opinion.  PAUGA also has the athletic edge over USMAN. His background as a professional football player is very evident.  He seems very strategic and tactical in his approach. When I watch his fights it is very evident by his movement and his approach that this man has the  background as well the confidence of a professional athlete. I think he will have USMAN covered no matter where this fight takes place.  As long as he doesn’t get clipped by a big bomb he should prevail here. USMAN is a big powerful striker but I have a feeling that PAUGA will expose him on Saturday night. USMAN looks and moves a lot like his older brother- UFC welterweight champion KAMARU USMAN- but there is a very clear skill discrepancy on display when he fights. MUHAMMAD has a very one dimensional, meat and potatoes approach when it comes to fighting and to my eye his striking, while powerful,  is still pretty rudimentary. I’m going to use PAUGA in a 2 fighter parlay and I might have a small play on PAUGA to win ITD. Hopefully he gets it done and gets himself crowned TUF 30 champion alongside his teammate JULIANA MILLER.

 

VICENTE LUQUE-160(21-8-1) VS GEOFF NEAL+140(14-4):

I’m going to be on LUQUE in this spot even though he did not look very good in his last outing against BELAL MUHAMMAD. I expect this co-main event to play out on the feet at striking range which should favor LUQUE.  NEAL is also a very high level striker so this is by no means a gimme fight for LUQUE but I think his pace and pressure will prove to be the difference here. I could see this fight playing out extremely close and going the distance and I could see a scenario where LUQUE finds the  finish by KO or by submission  so I’m thinking about a play on LUQUE ITD but I also like the LUQUE ML and I might decide to use him in a two fighter parlay. 

 

JAMAHAL HILL-260 (10-1) VS THIAGO SANTOS+220 (22-10):

I’m all over HILL in this main event. He is the younger, hungrier, fighter who is on the rise while SANTOS is the aging veteran who’s career is winding down and coming to its conclusion.  SANTOS was one of the scariest LHW on the planet a few years ago but he has suffered some pretty catastrophic injuries that required surgery and he has quite a bit of MMA mileage in terms of wear and tear. That does not mean that he is not capable of putting HILL(or anyone else for that matter) out if he comes correct and manages to catch him slipping but he is clearly the older lion in this scenario and HILL is clearly the younger fresher apex predator on the rise here. HILL has pinpoint accuracy and deceptively lethal power in his hands  He is, to put it quite simply, a Supreme KO artist. He is also a very intelligent fighter and provided he continues to perform with the same ferocious energy that has catapulted him into the top 10 of the division,  he will likely be fighting for the title at some point in the not too distant future. I am not one to write off or overlook fighters but HILL is my most confident play on the entire card. I don’t know if HILL actually manages to finish SANTOS who is a very durable and experienced veteran but I am still going to risk it and play the HILL KO prop. I will also use him in a 2 fighter parlay. Based on everything I’ve seen out of these two I think the surgical striking being put forth by HILL will overwhelm SANTOS at some point. If this fight does not result in another highlight reel KO for JAMAHAL “sweet dreams” HILL  I expect that he will come away from this with a clear cut Decision victory over the aging veteran “Marreta” SANTOS. 

 

This card should prove to be another solid offering from the UFC. It has a good mix of talent throughout and I am a firm believer that big names and star power are not the end all be all when it comes to making entertaining fights. Oftentimes it is the younger lesser known fighters on the roster who stand out by virtue of the fact that they are hungrier than their more established counterparts. UFC fighters are the finest high performance athletes on planet earth and they prove it to us week after amazing week. I do not expect UFC Vegas 59 to be any different in that regard and I am quite eager to get this party started. 

As always fade me or follow me at your own peril and above all enjoy the fights. 

Prepare to be entertained folks!

Frank Jodouin

Contributing Analyst

I started betting on fights in 2016, and have watched every single fight on every live event for almost seven years running. To put it plainly, I am a fight junkie, and Dana White is my dealer. I write content because I'm so passionate about this sport and I am honored to be a member of the We Want Picks team. I love to talk fights and share the knowledge I have accrued over the years as I continue to learn about the greatest the sport on planet earth.

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