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UFC Vegas 59: Best Bets and Round Props

by | Aug 2, 2022 | Best Bets

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This upcoming fight night card is headlined by ranked light heavyweights Jamahal Hill and Thiago Santos, and there’s a few great fights on the undercard that excite me stylistically and also from a betting perspective. Last week our ‘PHTB Parlay’ cashed and we went 2-0 on the best bets, so hopefully we can use our momentum to predict well yet again!

BEST BET #1 | Sergey Spivak H2H @$1.45

When Augusto Sakai entered the UFC, a lot of pundits believed he had a well-rounded and polished MMA skillset, as his Muay Thai and BJJ looked very refined. He had some success prior to his first main event against the now retired legend Alistair Overeem, who outlasted Sakai and finished him on the ground. Since then, Sakai faced elite strikers Jarzinho Rozenstruik and Tai Tuivasa, both of which he lost. He returns to the octagon to face the surging Sergey Spivak, who is a talented positional based grappler with a cardio advantage over Sakai.

It’s hard to think that a fighter as well-rounded as Sakai matches up badly against an unranked heavyweight in Spivak, but Spivak’s wrestling and top pressure negates most of the strengths in Sakai’s arsenal. Spivak’s relentless wrestling approach enables him to average 3.29 takedowns per fight at an impressive 60% clip, and only one will be required for Spivak to land fight altering damage. Spivak does not have the striking edge, however he is durable and is really good at closing range and clinching with his opponents, that is his path to victory and is the most likely outcome in my opinion.

BEST BET #2 | Vicente Luque H2H @$1.55

Vincente Luque is a savage. With an iron chin, powerful striking and slick BJJ he has proven that he is a legitimate contender in the UFC welterweight division. His opponent is an extremely technical kickboxer in Geoff Neal, who is gifted with power in his strikes. Neal employs a stoic and rather defensive stance which could potentially attribute to him being outworked from a volume perspective by opponents such as Neil Magny.

Vicente is more of a powerful fighter opposed to a volume guy, but he loves to pour on the pressure and due to his chin, he is confident to throw leather with anyone. Luque will feel comfortable entering the pocket regardless of Neal’s power, and will trade blows until the opportunity to take the fight to the ground presents itself. Although Geoff is the more technical and renowned striker, I really believe the threat of that takedown evens the playing field on the feet, and I think the Luque has advantages as long as he can close that distance.

 

BEST BET #3 | Jamahal Hill H2H @$1.36

Thiago Santos was once regarded as a genuine threat to the 205 lbs. title, however at 38 years old and after knee surgeries his output does not look the same. Of course he still has his patented power in both hands and some brutal kicks in his repertoire, but I really do favor the younger fighter in Jamahal Hill for this 5 round main event.

Hill has displayed smooth striking throughout his UFC tenure, with a knack of knocking his opponents out with crisp boxing combinations. Both men have power, but the speed and output of Hill should be the difference maker in this bout. Hill is 7 years younger, and appears to be a future title contender in a really exciting division. Winning this bout particularly by KO in the early rounds which I predict him to do, should catapult him up the rankings to a potential title eliminator matchup. 

Hill must remain composed and rise to the occasion, but I believe he is confident wherever this fight plays out and knows he is the faster and more active man in the striking. Hopefully it is a very entertaining main event, expecting both men to throw some leather!

 

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Thanks for tuning in once again, I hope you all enjoy the fights this weekend! If you are having a bet this weekend make sure you do your own research and gamble responsibly.

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Contributing Analyst

Lifelong sports enthusiast who loves sharing insights for free! I have trained martial arts for over 10 years, specialising in boxing. Despite a busy schedule, I have watched every UFC fight since 2015 because I simply cannot get enough of MMA. I began sharing my predictions from UFC 249 onwards on YouTube and branched out by posting opinions on various sporting events particularly in Australia where I am based

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