Without the Quinlan fight being scratched from the card we likely were in a good position to win a decent amount of money last week. Unfortunately that happened and I took the easy swap to Luque instead of reworking the lineup. That will serve as a lesson going forward to not take the easy way out. I disqualified Luque earlier in the week for a reason, yet somehow saving time was enough of an incentive to bring him back and donate my money to the FanDuel prize pool. I had Granger too, so it wasn’t all him, but she was cheap and my lineup could have overcome her low score without his loss added to it.
I do like this style of write up however as it gives me more freedom to construct a lineup that I know stands a chance to win my contests. So I will be continuing this style for the foreseeable future, at least until the premium membership section moves to using a player pool for FanDuel. Then I will probably switch to a cash game format for this article.
Below you will see my FanDuel breakdown for UFC San Diego, if you have any questions please don’t hesitate to comment below and I will do my best to answer them!
BUILD STYLE
BALANCED
This week for UFC San Diego is another week where at first glance the lower priced fighters are not very appealing. So once again I will have to get creative with lineup construction by ignoring the very top priced fighters.
Because of that, I will not be playing Loopy Godinez, Josh Quinlan or Gabriel Benitez this week. They all most likely win their fight and score well, but they would force me to play fighters that I am just simply not confident in. I do NOT recommend fading those high priced fighters in multiple entry contests, or if you play more than one lineup, but for the single entry contests that I play, I need five solid wins.
The real question is going to be whether or not I can avoid the land mine that was Vincente Luque last week. Missing that is crucial to survival when constructing lineups. You can generally afford to lose your salary punt play, but that is it. Everything else needs to be wins at minimum, decisive wins to secure a payout.
FAVORITE PLAY
DAVID ONAMA – $21
David Onama is a rising star in this sport and this salary is less than I had to spend on him the last time. That is almost an auto-roster for me in any sport. The discount was a lot deeper on DraftKings, but I will happily take what I can get over here where they wait til the last minute to drop salaries.
Onama’s opponent is Nate Landwehr, aka “The Train”, so I fully expect the pace to be pushed here which should create the prime environment for an Onama finish. Both of Landwehr’s UFC losses came by way of knock out, and that is probably due to the aggressive pace that he fights with. Unfortunately Onama has the skill and power to end Landwehr’s night early.
With both of these fighters being wide open strikers I don’t really see a chance for this one letting me down. Sure Landwehr could be the guy that connects and my night could be over, but I think that Onama is by far the better fighter, and that will be my position until proven otherwise.
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VALUE PLAY
DEVIN CLARK – $14
When searching the bottom of the salary pool, it is important to keep one thing in mind. You need someone that will last the duration of the fight. Looking at the bottom of the salary pool this week on FanDuel I see two fighters that will do that. Those fighters are Angela Hill and Tyson Nam. Unfortunately I do not believe either of those fighters will win. If I was forced to choose between them I would go with Nam because he should at least be standing for most of his fight. Thankfully I am not forced however, and just moving up the salary tier a bit we come to a fighter that I actually believe can win their fight. Devin Clark is the value play this week.
Devin Clark is a beast of a wrestler, and maybe I am just a dummy, but I do not see what others see in Azamat Murzakanov. What I saw was a guy that struggled with Tafon Nchukwi and only managed to get a finish on a flying knee. I have heard that Murzakanov is a combat sambo champion, and did see video of him dispatching Ion Cutelaba rather quickly. That being said I think Devin Clark is going to build on the success of his fight and really put on a wrestling and grappling show.
If this fight manages to stay on the feet in a striking match, then maybe I might be in trouble here with this pick, but on a slate with very few dogs that I think can win and do so in dominant fashion, Clark is my go to for UFC San Diego.
FIGHT TO TARGET
YAZMIN JAUREGUI – $18/IASMIN LUCINDO – $12
Prior to seeing the pricing I was ready to just use the main event as my suggested fight to target this week. It made sense, there are five rounds and they will be fighting all of them most likely. As the week progressed and I dug into tape however, the fight to target for GPPs took a swing. To be clear I would definitely stack the main event on any cash entries.
The fight that caught my eye however is the battle of the Yasmin’s. Before we get into the fight though, can we take a moment to appreciate all the different ways to Jasmine? I was amazed when I found out that you could also spell it Yazmin and Iasmin. You learn something new every day. While watching tape
Yazmin Jauregui impressed the hell out of me watching her tape. Her offensive striking reminded me of Joanna with her speed, aggression, and accuracy. She also has a really solid takedown game, utilizing leverage well coupled with brute strength. She does have holes like any young fighter though, and for Yazmin Jauregui those holes are that she does get hit often, and for whatever reason she loses top position quite often. In fact I would say I saw her lose top position and end up on bottom more often than I saw her actually get taken down. In fact her takedown defense is pretty solid, and when she does get put on the bottom she fights to get back up quickly – never accepting that position.
Her opponent, Iasmin Lucindo, is a bit more raw. She is not nearly as polished of a striker, however does possess good power early. Her game plan is pretty much the same in every fight she is in. Lucindo looks to get the trip takedowns and then work herself into mount for the ground and pound finish. If she is allowed to get that top position, she isn’t going anywhere. The two holes that I saw in her game watching tape were both from old tape unfortunately, but those holes were a questionable gas tank as the fight gets out of the first round, and she doesn’t seem to like being met with forward pressure. This puts her into circle the cage mode, and she will look for shots as she escapes side to side.
The level of competition can be questioned on both sides here, but just based on the eye test the women that Jauregui was fighting in Combate seemed to have a much higher skill level than the women that Lucindo was fighting. The records of the opponents of both women tells the opposite story however. This is very much a crap shoot here, but this fight is one to look at because you will either be getting a very active strike heavy performance from Jauregui or a ground and pound first round finish from Lucindo. I am very much in favor of Jauregui, but the value of Lucindo is undeniable if she can manage to secure the win.
GOOD LUCK THIS WEEKEND
Good look to all heading into this event. If you are watching it at home make sure to follow along with @WeWantPicks on Twitter for live bets. Also make sure to tweet your winning lineups at us and we will do our best to recognize your greatness.
Enjoy the event, and make sure to keep it locked on We Want Picks for tons of great MMA content.
