That break was much needed to replenish the spirit. We are back at it looking for FanDuel gold this weekend at UFC Paris. This card is so wild from a picking standpoint. Most of the dogs have a path to victory, so it makes picking the right dogs the key to a great lineup. Unfortunately it seems like we might be at a point with UFC daily fantasy where the slate shake ups take an already high variance sport to a level where multi-entry is the only path to success. Single entry used to be the most profitable way to play, but with the level of randomness taking place in cards for the last several events, moving to cash events might be beneficial for guys like me that enjoy the slow and steady approach. Comment below if you would prefer a cash approach instead of a tournament approach. Also comment if you don’t know the difference between the two.
Below you will see my FanDuel breakdown for UFC Paris, if you have any questions please don’t hesitate to comment below as well and I will do my best to answer them!
BUILD STYLE
STARS & SCRUBS / BALANCED
For UFC Paris there could be two very solid approaches here. If you think you can dial in the right dogs from this slate, then Stars and Scrubs should be extremely profitable for you. Picking those dogs correctly however is quite the task so a safer approach might be to build a balanced lineup and doing so this time around for UFC Paris shouldn’t be too difficult. Most of the higher priced fighters are not the true finish threats on the slate.
For the Stars and Scrubs approach you want to find three fighters that you are incredibly confident in at the top of the salary range. Then you would look to add two budget fighters (around $11 or less), and then plug the last fighter in based on what you have left.
With a balanced approach this week I would look to not select more than one fighter over $17 of salary. This will allow you to keep your salaries somewhat even across the lineup and fit in more favored fighters than you could otherwise. This style of lineup might be the best bet for single entry and cash this week if you are only looking for profit and not a first place finish. To finish first you will want to revisit that Stars and Scrubs approach above.
FAVORITE PLAY
BENOIT SAINT-DENIS – $21
Both competitors in this fight are finishers. In fact this fight is the second most favored to finish inside the distance. Benoit Saint-Denis is an absolute savage in the cage, being the recipient of a beating that I still truly believe one day will be linked to CTE. His opponent, Gabriel Miranda, is an all or nothing BJJ specialist that is as live as they come for about one round, but after that begins to fade.
My expectation here is that Saint-Denis is careful enough to not get caught early on in something silly, and puts the beats to Mr. Miranda. I believe Saint-Denis ends the fight sometime in the late first or early second round.
This is a definite MVP candidate for me, as Saint-Denis is one of the most confident picks for me on the entire UFC Paris card. He is quickly becoming one of my favorite undercard fighters as well after his previous two performances in the UFC.
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VALUE PLAY
MARVIN VETTORI – $11
I have been hearing how wrong I am here all week long, actually for two weeks because of the off week. I get it, Robert Whittaker is a great fighter and a fan favorite so its hard to admit that maybe the line here is a bit wide. Vettori is a solid fighter in his own right however, and there is something in my gut telling me he is the play here.
Unfortunately my gut doesn’t pay entry fees, so I had to find a different rationale to play Vettori on this slate. What I came up with is this. His brick for a head is virtually impossible to put away, so he offers three full rounds of scoring, he does average over 2 takedowns per fight (although Wittaker likely won’t allow that), and he is able to keep an insane pace for five that was displayed against Costa and Hermanson. So my hope is that he turns up that pace for the three rounds that this fight is scheduled for because he now knows he is good for it.
He may not win the fight, and if you are looking for a more likely winner in the lower salaries you may need to look elsewhere. My gut is telling me to look here, and Swivvy’s crystal ball agrees. Or his Alien morse code, whatever he uses to conjure up his theories. If you don’t know who I am talking about, get in the We Want Picks Discord server and enjoy the show.
FIGHT TO TARGET
CHARLES JOURDAIN – $17 / NATHANIEL WOOD – $14
This fight has BANGER written all over it. Both of these fighters fight at an insane pace, both seem like they would prefer to strike, although Wood does hold a significant wrestling advantage, and this fight has the makings of a FanDuel optimal written all over it even in a decision.
I tend to lean to the Jourdain side, but Jacob has selected Nathaniel Wood as his LOTW along with Swivvy’s co-sign that the Pyramids have Wood being victorious etched on their walls. Either way you go though, you will want the winner of this fight in your lineup.
From a logical standpoint the Wood pick would make sense because he does seem to be the better technical fighter between the two in pretty much every discipline. I am still choosing to believe Jourdain is the rightful favorite here because he has been surging. In fact, even his last loss wasn’t really a loss in my opinion. We have been told numerous times recently that control without damage is not scored with any kind of preference, and that is all that Burgos had going for him in that last fight with Jourdain. Jourdain outstruck him by an enormous margin and should have won that fight. His momentum and willingness to leave everything he has in the cage is a big asset and I know that Jourdain will fight for my money.
On the flip side, Nathaniel Wood could be the same exact guy. You really should go with who you think wins between these two because while knowing who wins is tough, knowing it will be a fast paced significant strike loaded fight is not tough at all. This one will deliver.
GOOD LUCK THIS WEEKEND
Good look to all heading into this event. If you are watching it at home make sure to follow along with @WeWantPicks on Twitter for live bets. Also make sure to tweet your winning lineups at us and we will do our best to recognize your greatness.
Enjoy the event, and make sure to keep it locked on We Want Picks for tons of great MMA content.
