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UFC Paris: Gane vs. Tuivasa Complete Betting Guide

by | Aug 28, 2022 | Fight Preview

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This is the 21st edition of RAPID FIRE QUICK PICKS and we are coming off a successful UFC 278 card. I effectively went 8-3-1 on my predictions but to be fair that number is a little skewed because I played the value and bet against some of my own picks. The bottom line however is that I made a modest $200 on the night which is not a lot in the grand scheme of things but it is still a profit and that is really the only number that matters at the end of the day.  

With that in mind these are my picks and my actual bets for UFC Paris  This card has all the makings of another instant classic and I am looking to capitalize on what I think are some pretty good reads.

 

NASSOURDINE IMAVOV-260(11-3) VS JOAQUIN BUCKLEY+220(15-4):

This is a great matchup that has the potential to play out in a myriad of different ways. Both of these guys are hungry, well rounded prospects that come for war every time out. I personally think that IMAVOV is slightly more technical and slightly calmer under fire but I feel like BUCKLEY is probably the more dangerous of the two, he’s also very mean and he throws with very bad intentions. I’m really tempted to take the dog shot on BUCKLEY here but I feel like IMAVOV’S technical advantage will win the day. So while I think there is tremendous value on the dog, I’m more inclined to think that IMAVOV is the right side. However unless you can call the method of victory or parlay him up to better odds I don’t think an IMAVOV play is worth the squeeze. This will likely be a very close fight and it screams dog or pass but I’m probably just going to pass. My pick is IMAVOV but this is a no bet for me. 

 

BENOIT ST-DENIS-240 (9-1) VS GABRIEL MIRANDA+200(16-5):

 After watching the tape on MIRANDA it is obvious to me that he has good jiujitsu skills and his striking is definitely serviceable. Alot of the tape was several years old which means he has a lot of experience coming into his ufc debut, it also stands to reason that he has probably made a lot of overall improvements to his game in the years leading up to the most important fight of his career. I’m extremely tempted to take the dog shot here but I’m very leary about betting a debuting fighter against someone like ST-DENIS. ST-DENIS has an awesome ground game but I think the slight striking advantage probably belongs to MIRANDA in this match up. The biggest factor for me however is ST-DENIS’ military experience. He was a special forces commando for the French military and that requires a whole other level of fight IQ and survival instincts. Even in a brutal beat down loss to Elizeu ZALESESKI DOS SANTOS in his debut, ST-DENIS didn’t even think about quitting.  He actually went the distance and took such a hellacious beating that the referee got fired for not stopping the fight. He just has the pedigree of a trained killer and he has shown himself to be an individual who will fight to the death. It’s difficult to make an accurate read on MIRANDA because I have not seen him at this level whereas I know that ST-DENIS will fight for my money come hell or high water. I’m not crazy about the chalky price tag because I could see a scenario where MIRANDA pulls off the upset in his debut but as far as a pick I have to go with the proven commodity in ST-DENIS. I might use him in a two fighter parlay but I haven’t officially decided to play him at this point. 

JOHN MAKDESSI+180(18-7) VS NASRAT HAQPARAST-210(13-5):

MAKDESSI has been around for years and he has cost me money on more than one occasion. I really don’t like to bet on his fights because I can’t seem to get on the right side of them. In this case though I’m going to be firmly on the HAQPARAST side. I think he is the better striker and I have a new policy where I do not bet on older fighters who have more than a 7 years age gap. As per UFC stats the older fighter in those scenarios loses 67% of the time and in this case HAQPARAST is a full 10 years younger than MAKDESSI. I also think HAQPARAST is the more well rounded fighter here. My dislike for MAKDESSI costing me money notwithstanding.  I have to go with the younger, more well rounded fighter. I’m going to play HAQPARAST by decision and use him as a parlay piece. Hopefully MAKDESSI doesn’t find a way to fuck me over again.

MICHAL FIGLAK-200(8-0) VS FARES ZIAM+170(12-4):
 
I like FIGLAK quite a bit in this spot. It’s easy to see why he is undefeated. He has tremendous pace and pressure to compliment exceptional footwork and distance management. He also hunts for the finish from minute one to the final bell which is always something we like to see when we are betting on a fighter. ZIAM is a good striker but to my eye he does not possess the same stopping power that FIGLAK has. I also think that the wrestling advantage is squarely on the FIGLAK side here. This is high level mma so there are no guarantees. There is always a chance that the more experienced ZIAM could thwart FIGLAK’S ufc debut but based on what I’ve seen but I feel like -200 on the debuting prospect in FIGLAK is a buy low steal. FIGLAK is untested at this level but I feel like his experience with the Cage Warriors promotion will serve him quite well as he makes his ufc debut against ZIAM who has gone 2-2 thus far in his ufc campaign against a good level of competition. The fact that ZIAM will be the hometown fighter is very much a concern for me as a FIGLAK backer because if ZIAM can make this a close fight there is no telling how the judges will score it but ultimately I have to go with the more dynamic FIGLAK here. Hopefully he will find the finish and keep the judges out of it but at very least I expect him to win a convincing decision in his ufc debut. I will likely use him in a two fighter parlay and I might have a small play on him to win by KO. However this is his debut so I will be proceeding with caution here because if we know anything about this sport it’s that there is no such thing as a sure thing. Give me FIGLAK for the win. Hopefully he scores the biggest win of his career and  remains undefeated in his ufc debut.
 
 
CHARLES JOURDAIN-140 (13-5-1) VS NATHANIEL WOOD +120(18-5):
 
I am probably the worst person to break this fight down objectively because I am a huge JOURDAIN fan. He comes from my area and I have watched him throughout his impressive regional career so there is no denying my bias here. That said, I’m also a fan NATHANIEL WOOD who is coming off a unanimous decision victory over Charles ROSA at the last London card. It’s difficult to say who is the better fighter on a skill for skill basis but when it comes to pure heart and bad intentions, I have to side with JOURDAIN who has shown himself to be an outstanding 3rd round fighter. JOURDAIN is always looking for the finish. Sometimes that works to his detriment because he is so confident in his ability that he puts himself in bad positions and that is the last thing you want to see if you are backing JOURDAIN against a very capable WOOD. NONETHELESS I am riding with my local hero JOURDAIN in this spot but I have a number of concerns and I am not exactly comfortable with my position. I am absolutely biased here so take what I am saying with a grain of salt. This fight is a coin toss in my opinion but I lean with the ferocity and 3rd round stamina that JOURDAIN has shown time and again. There is also the matter of him being a native of Quebec which is a French province in Canada so he will almost certainly have the support of the French crowd when he faces the English man in WOOD. Languages and my bias notwithstanding,  this is an extremely close fight and there is no telling who will come out on top in this match up but since we are in the business of picking winners I will pick JOURDAIN to get it done. I haven’t officially decided to bet this fight but if I do I will likely bet JOURDAIN’S ML. VIVE LE QUEBEC.
 
ABUSUPIYAN MAGOMEDOV -250(24-4-1) VS DUSTIN STOLTZFUS +210(14-4):
 
I’m all over MAGOMEDOV in this match up. He is an excellent wrestler and he has big power in his hands as well as his feet. This guy can get it done any which way. I feel like he is quite simply the superior fighter here. STOLTZFUS is a good grappler but I think he is at striking disadvantage in this spot. There is always the possibility that STOLTZFUS could lean on his jiujitsu skills but I think the wrestling and submission game for MAGOMEDOV will be problematic if STOLTZFUS decides to grapple. MAGOMEDOV will be making his ufc debut and he has been submitted as well as KO’d before so I have some concerns in that regard but based on the tape I’ve watched this guy has all the standard traits of a typical Russian monster. This archetype of fighter has consistently proven to be a problem regardless of who the opponent is or the circumstances surrounding the fight. I personally think that he should run through STOLTZFUS but again this is based on dated tape and we can’t ignore the fact that this is his ufc debut. Nor can can we overlook STOLTZFUS who has ufc experience and black belt jiujitsu that he can lean on. I have been on the right side of every STOLTZFUS fight that I have bet so hopefully I continue that streak here. My pick is MAGOMEDOV, I will use him in a two fighter parlay and I will be betting his ITD line.
 
ALESSIO DI CHIRICO-120(13-6) VS ROMAN KOPYLOV+105(8-2):

I’m not sure what to do with this fight. KOPYLOV gave a really good account of himself in his last outing which was a razor close decision loss against highly touted DWCS graduate ALBERT DURAEV. He has been less than stellar thus far in his UFC campaign but he showed marked  improvements in the DURAEV fight. DICHIRICO is the definition of an inconsistent fighter. He has shown himself to possess knock out ability in his fight against JOAQUIN BUCKLEY but he also got knocked out himself in his very next outing against Abdul Razak HALHASSAN. DICHIRICO has also dropped quite a few decisions that I fully expected him to win. In terms of technical advantages I feel like these two are evenly matched but I would give KOPYLOV a slight edge everywhere. In terms of experience and strength of schedule the advantage is squarely on the DICHIRICO side. I should probably just pass altogether on this one but I feel like KOPYLOV is a viable underdog play here so I’m going to be taking a small plus money dog shot on his ML. This is not a confident play by any stretch of the imagination but as far as a decent underdog goes I feel like KOPYLOV has a good chance of cashing. Hopefully he pulls off the upset here. 

ROBERT WHITTAKER-230(24-6) VS MARVIN VETTORI+195(18-5-1):

I’m going to be on WHITTAKER here. I just think he is the better all around fighter and he has the championship experience and pedigree to lean on. VETTORI has great grappling as well as great cardio. He is very well rounded and very determined to capture a title of his own so I think he will likely give a good account of himself and make this a close fight but I think WHITTAKER will be the one getting his hand raised when the dust settles. I will likely play WHITTAKER by decision and look to use him in a two fighter parlay. I think this will be a great co-main event.


CYRIL GANE-540(10-1) VS TAI TUIVASA+420(15-3):

These odds are way too wide for my liking. Especially when you factor in that this is a Heavyweight contest where one shot can alter the course of the fight. I definitely think GANE is the more well rounded fighter here and I agree that he is the rightful favorite but when the bookies are hanging +420 on a HW knock out artist like TUIVASA I have to take the dog shot. To be clear I think GANE probably wins this fight 75% of the time and I am picking him to win here but I’m going to take the plus money shot and play TUIVASA by KO as well as a small play on his ML in case he manages to win a decision. So my pick is GANE but I will be playing the value on TUIVASA. Hopefully he can upset the apple cart and pull off what would be a major upset in front of the Parisian crowd. 

I believe this is the UFC’s first trip to Paris and as per usual it should prove to be an outstanding night of fights. After almost two weeks without action from the world’s biggest MMA promotion it’s safe to say that UFC nation will be ravenous for UFC Paris. On a personal note,  words do not do justice to how much I dislike weeks off so I am very eager to get back to a steady diet of Saturday night fights. In fact the only thing I enjoy more than watching fights is making money betting on fights, so hopefully UFC Paris will provide both of those things for me and our loyal readers. If you are unable to watch the fights for some unfortunate reason you can always catch my full recap of the action right here at WE WANT PICKS. We are about this life and we aim to help our members/readers successfully  navigate the UFC betting landscape.

As always fade me or follow me at your own peril and above all enjoy the gift that is mixed martial arts at the highest level.

Frank Jodouin

Contributing Analyst

I started betting on fights in 2016, and have watched every single fight on every live event for almost seven years running. To put it plainly, I am a fight junkie, and Dana White is my dealer. I write content because I'm so passionate about this sport and I am honored to be a member of the We Want Picks team. I love to talk fights and share the knowledge I have accrued over the years as I continue to learn about the greatest the sport on planet earth.

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