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UFC Long Island: Ortega vs. Rodriguez – Quick Picks

by | Jul 11, 2022 | Fight Preview

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In this the 16th edition of RAPID FIRE QUICK PICKS I will give you my insights and my actual bets for UFC FIGHT NIGHT: ORTEGA VS RODRIGUEZ which is set to take place in Long Island NY in front of a live crowd.  

I went 6-4 on last week’s predictions for UFC Vegas 58(7-4 if we count the ONAMA/ARMFIELD fight which was a late addition). Unfortunately I still managed to lose $280.00 on all of my betting/DFS action which is definitely not the desired result but 260 of those dollars were lost in the DFS arena which makes the loss a little more understandable.

Clearly my parlay and lineup construction were far too reliant on my losing picks and it cost me. However I’m still up over $1000.00 for June & July so in the grand scheme of things it’s a minor glitch that I fully intend to rectify with this weekend’s event which is shaping up to be another excellent offering from the world’s premier MMA promotion. 

 

EMILY DUCOTE-135(11-6) VS JESSICA PENNE+115(14-6):

I was really hoping that the bookies were going to favor PENNE in this matchup so that I could start things off with a plus money dog shot but evidently the bookies are seeing the same thing I’m seeing. I watched quite a bit of tape on DUCOTE and what I came away with is that she is a very patient, composed fighter who will fully commit to going for the kill when she manages to hurt her opponents.  She is the younger fighter in this matchup and she will be making her UFC debut against a seasoned UFC veteran in PENNE who is often undervalued in my opinion. PENNE has very good Jiujitsu and she is very game but I think DUCOTE will probably be the stronger, faster fighter in this instance. I would not have hesitated to take the plus money shot on her had she in fact been the underdog but I’m less inclined to play her at chalk.  I am still picking DUCOTE to win her UFC debut but I think I have to hold off on betting her until I see how she fares under the bright lights of the UFC but even as I sit here writing this article I could see myself most having a change of heart and betting DUCOTE as the favorite before fight time rolls around. However at this time I’m going to pass altogether. 

 

DWIGHT GRANT-160(11-5) VS DUSTIN STOLTZFUS+140(13-4):

I thought STOLTZFUS would be the betting favorite in this match up and as such I had no interest in this one but because STOLTZFUS is in fact the underdog here I think I might have a small play on his ML. I’m not overly impressed with either one of these fighters but I think STOLTZFUS can win minutes on the feet and cruise to a decision.  I am a little worried about GRANT landing one of his patented bombs but he just doesn’t throw enough volume for my liking. He does have one hitter quitter power though so he might not need more than one if he lands. However I have enough faith in STOLTZFUS’ ability to remain defensively sound and edge out a decision. In fact a split decision for either side is a very probable outcome here which is why I think this is a decent underdog spot.

 

DUSTIN JACOBY-150(17-5-1) DA UN JUNG+130(15-2-1):

This one should be lined up more closely in my opinion.  I’m not even sure that JACOBY is even the rightful favorite if I’m being honest.  I think JUNG probably has the power advantage but JACOB is most likely the superior kickboxer in this match up. If this fight goes to the ground I think JUNG will have a submission advantage given their respective records. JUNG has 2 subs on his record and JACOBY has been subbed one time in his UFC campaign, albeit that was quite some time ago so he has probably made some significant improvements in terms of his submission defense. However I think this fight will be largely contested on the feet which should favor JACOBY. This is a difficult fight to handicap in my opinion because I think whoever wins will likely look like a 3-1 favorite. I’m just not sure who that will be. As such I think I have to pass on betting this one. As far as a pick goes I’m thinking JACOBY should be able to get it done by Decision but this a very winnable fight for JUNG so proceed with caution folks. 

 

BILL ALGEO-166(15-6) VS HERBERT BURNS+130(11-3):

I think ALGEO is the right side here but I’m not very confident about it. This will probably be a very close fight. ALGEO has good jiujitsu and he’s a decent striker who stays very calm under fire. He also has good cardio which allows him to put on a decent pace and in this instance he could drag BURNS into deep waters. He might even be able to finish BURNS but I think he is more likely to win by decision if he gets it done. BURNS is a very live dog though,  He has great jiujitsu and he can land bombs in a fire fight. He is very dangerous and very opportunistic. I think he has great value in this spot. Ultimately I’m not confident enough either way to actually bet on this fight but I’m leaning ALGEO by the slimmest of margins and if I’m being honest that is probably due to recency bias. So my pick is ALGEO but this is going to be a hard pass from a betting standpoint. 

 

RICKY SIMON+145(19-3) VS JACK SHORE-170 (16-0):

It is difficult not to pick SHORE no matter who he is fighting. The 16-0 record pretty much sums it up when it comes to SHORE’S ability in the cage. He is a blue chip prospect who will likely challenge for the title at some point in the not too distant future.  However the fact that he is only -170 against SIMON speaks volumes about how good SIMON actually is.  I’m not sure that there is much of a skill discrepancy here.  Both of these guys are monster grapplers with submission skills. Both of them  can strike and both of them can push at a fierce pace.  It feels extremely counter intuitive to bet against the likes of SHORE even though I do think that at some point he will eventually lose. I just don’t know if it’ll be this time around but I do know that SIMON is very capable of snatching his O and bouncing him from the ranks of the undefeated. This might be a  decent underdog spot or it might be a great buy low spot on a highly touted, undefeated prospect. I’m inclined to believe that whoever wins will do so by decision, so rather than playing a side here I might just play FGTD.  In terms of an actual winner though, I have to lean with the undefeated prospect in SHORE but I think this is a very close fight as well as a potential FOTN candidate. So I urge everyone to proceed with caution.  

 

PUNHALE SORIANO-270(8-2) VS DALCHA LUNGIAMBULA+230 (11-4):

I’m gonna be on SORIANO here and in addition to using him in 2 fighter parlay I think I will also play him to win ITD. He has not produced the desired results in his last two outings but the same can be said about LUNGIAMBULA and generally speaking I have a lot more faith in SORIANO’S skills. I think SORIANO wins this fight around 7 out of 10 times and I think most of those wins would likely come by finish. Hopefully this proves to be true in this instance. 

 

LAUREN MURPHY+155 (15-5) VS MEISHA TATE-175(19-8):

I’m not sure what to make of this fight. I’m leaning TATE to win by decision but I worry that maybe the game has passed her by at this point. While I’ve never been a big fan of MURPHY’s she has shown herself to be a gritty fighter when she’s at her best and I could see her pulling off the upset here.  I think this comes downtown who shows up on the night but I have no idea who that will be in this instance. I’m gonna trust that MEISHA still has enough in the tank to get it done but there’s no way I can bet on this fight in good conscience. This has to be another pass for me but in all likelihood this is probably a dog or pass scenario. I just don’t have enough faith in either fighter to actually bet this one.

SHANE BURGOS-180(14-3) VS CHARLES JOURDAIN+158(13-4-1): 

 This is definitely the front runner for FOTN so if your book offers a FOTN prop you should hammer this because it is likely the best bet on the entire card.  Both of these guys are highly skilled all action fighters that come for war every time out. I am a huge JOURDAIN fan but I have to pick against him in this spot because I think BURGOS will ultimately prove to be the more durable fighter. I think there is a good chance that this one ends in a highlight reel KO so FDGTD seems like a good look here but as far as picking a side goes, I have to pick against my fellow Canadian “AIR” JOURDAIN. I think BURGOS will have a strength and power advantage and that he will catch JOURDAIN at some point before the final bell. I will not be betting this one however so I will be rooting against my own pick and I’m hoping that JOURDAIN proves me wrong come fight night. JOURDAIN is very live for a KO of his own and I would not be entirely surprised if he managed to win by decision but my gut tells me that BURGOS is the play here.  

 

MATT SCHNELL +220(15-6) VS SU MUDAERJI-260(16-4):

I’m picking MUDAERJI in this one. I think he is the better striker and to my mind he has the higher ceiling. Full disclosure: I’m not a fan of SCHNELL’s style and I fade him almost every chance I get. However I think SCHNELL probably has the advantage on the ground and it is not out of the realm of possibility that he could exploit that here but I’m not betting another penny on SCHNELL until he shows me something.  Granted SCHNELL has way more UFC level experience. He has likely faced a higher level of competition than MUDAERJI so I understand why someone would take the juicy plus money shot on him here but I have been burned by him a couple of times which makes it very difficult for me to back him in this spot. However I will not be laying the chalk on MUDAERJI because in spite of my lack of faith in SCHNELL I do think this line is way too wide. Conventional wisdom dictates that this is a perfect spot to hammer the dog but as I said before I cannot lay a penny on SCHNELL until he shows me something bet worthy. This is another pass for me but my pick is MUDAERJI. 

 

LI JINGLIANG+155(18-7) MUSLIM SALIKHOV-180(18-2):

I think SALIKHOV is the right side here. He is the superior striker in my opinion and I expect him to win a fairly comfortable decision as long as JINGLIANG doesn’t manage to clip him and put him down before the final bell. JINGLIANG has very real power and he is a very game opponent so I think he is a viable underdog in this spot but I expect this fight will likely play out on the feet and I favor SALIKHOV in that type of scenario. I am not laying the chalk on SALIKHOV though because this should be a close fight which means JINGLIANG is very live to score the upset. This is yet another pass for me but I am picking SALIKHOV to win by decision. 

 

MICHELLE WATERSON+280(18-9) VS AMANDA LEMOS-340 (11-2-1): 

I’m all over LEMOS in this co-main event but at more than 3 to 1 odds I can’t bet her straight so I will likely look to use her in a 2 fighter parlay. I will also look to bet LEMOS by KO.  WATERSON is an experienced veteran who has an impressive tool box but I think the power differential will be on full display here. I don’t think WATERSON’s durability will hold up and I would be a little shocked if WATERSON somehow managed to win this fight. This a perfect bounce back spot for LEMOS and I fully expect that she will prevail here. 

 

BRIAN ORTEGA-160 (15-2) VS YAIR RODRIGUEZ+140 (14-3):

I’m a huge fan of ORTEGA. So much so that I actually bet him to win verses HOLLOWAY and VOLKANOVSKI (I still have nightmares about it) but based on how those fights played out I think this is a clash of styles that favors RODRIGUEZ and at plus money I feel obligated to take the shot on RODRIGUEZ here. I do have very real concerns that ORTEGA could find one of his patented submissions at some point but if RODRIGUEZ can make this a striking match he should be able to score the upset here. I don’t think he will finish ORTEGA who is as durable as they come but I do think he can outpoint him and win a decision. If there is a finish here I think it’ll be ORTEGA by submission so I might have a small hedge play in this one to mitigate my exposure.  RODRIGUEZ by decision and ORTEGA by submission. Of course there is no guarantee that a hedge like that won’t blow up in my face. In my experience hedges seldom work out so it might be best to just pick a side and let the chips fall where they may. For the purposes of this article I’m going to pick RODRIGUEZ to win by decision but I do not feel good about fading ORTEGA who has shown himself to be a very real problem when he is not facing a bonafide champion.

 

This should be a pretty good main event, in front of a live crowd which seems to energize fighters and produce outstanding fights. In fact it would not surprise me in the least if this card turned out to be an explosive all action affair from start to finish. 

As always fade me or follow me at your own peril and above all enjoy the fights.

Frank Jodouin

Contributing Analyst

I started betting on fights in 2016, and have watched every single fight on every live event for almost seven years running. To put it plainly, I am a fight junkie, and Dana White is my dealer. I write content because I'm so passionate about this sport and I am honored to be a member of the We Want Picks team. I love to talk fights and share the knowledge I have accrued over the years as I continue to learn about the greatest the sport on planet earth.

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