It seems as though this Weekend’s UFC FIGHT NIGHT:KATTAR VS EMMETT card has a tough task in terms of living up to its predecessor. Most PPV cards are hard acts to follow but this is especially true in the wake of UFC 275 which was nothing short of spectacular in terms of entertainment value. In terms of predictions I had a very poor showing at 6-5 but I did manage my 3rd DraftKings tournament takedown of 2022 which made me a cool 1300 dollars so I’m not too sour about the 6-5 on my money line predictions.
However, that is officially in the rearview mirror and we move forward with the 13th edition of RAPID FIRE QUICK PICKS and what looks like a very promising UFC Fight Night: KATTAR VS EMMETT.
KYLE DAUKAUS-225 (11-2) VS ROMAN DOLIDZE+185 (9-1):
I’m on DAUKAUS here. To my mind he has been the more impressive fighter to this point and I believe his ceiling is considerably higher than DOLIDZE’s. However DOLIDZE is definitely a live dog in this match up. Styles make fights as the saying goes but I think DAUKAUS is the better striker and the more dynamic jiujitsu player. I do think DOLIDZE will have a strength advantage but I expect that it will be negated by DAUKAUS’ cardio and tenacity. My pick is DAUKAUS and I will probably use him in a two fighter parlay.
PHIL HAWES-250(11-3) VS DERON WINN+200(7-2):
I have to go with HAWES in this matchup. He will have the size advantage here and he will likely possess a power advantage on the feet. While both fighters come from a wrestling background I suspect that WINN will have a technical advantage in that area but I don’t think it will be enough to deal with HAWES’ power and speed. There is a very real possibility that WINN will be able to impose his wrestling game but to my mind HAWES should be competent enough to keep the grappling exchanges fairly even and he has WINN beat in every other aspect of MMA. I will be using HAWES in a 2 fighter parlay.
EDDIE WINELAND+300 (24-15-1) VS CODY STAMANN -400 (19-5-1):
I have to go with STAMANN in this match up but at these odds I simply do not trust him enough to lay the chalk. STAMANN should absolutely roll here in my opinion. I think WINELAND is showing clear signs of decline due to age and fight mileage but I don’t know that he’s completely washed at this late stage of his career. I’m inclined to believe that STAMANN is the right side here but I will likely pass altogether on this one.
MARIA OLIVEIRA+205 (12-5) VS GLORIA DE PAULA(6-4) -255:
I’m all over DE PAULA in this match up. While she has less experience and she is 2 losses shy of a .500 record I think she is the superior striker here. Perhaps it’s the image of OLIVEIRA waving off her own fight when she got tagged by Marina Rodriguez in her DWCS appearance but I just don’t know that I can trust her to be very competitive at the UFC level. DE PAULA has shown excellent striking as evidenced by her 3 KO victories and I think she is live for a fourth KO victory versus OLIVEIRA. This is MMA at the UFC level so there are no guarantees but I’m pretty confident that DE PAULA is the right side in this one and I will be using her in a 2 fighter parlay. I am also considering her KO prop depending on what the odds look like.
RICARDO RAMOS-305(15-4) VS DANNY CHAVEZ+240 (11-4-1):
The bookies are not cutting us any slack with any of these favorites and if I’m being honest I can’t say that I blame them. In this case these odds speak to the obvious skill discrepancy between these two fighters. RAMOS is very much the rightful favorite here. I’m pretty sure he has CHAVEZ covered wherever this fight goes. CHAVEZ has decent striking but RAMOS has better striking as well as superior jiujitsu. To my mind this is quite simply a step down in competition for RAMOS. I’m thinking about playing RAMOS to win by decision but I will probably settle on using him in a 2 fighter parlay.
COURT MCGEE+100 (22-10) VS JEREMIAH WELLS-120 (10-2-1):
This is a tough one in my opinion. My knee jerk reaction is to go with WELLS but it is not always wise to bet against MCGEE. Especially given how good he has looked in his last two outings. That said, I usually have a pretty good read on what skill level an opponent needs to have in order to beat MCGEE and I think WELLS qualifies for the task at hand. To be fair though it’s MCGEE who has far more UFC level experience and there is a part of me that feels like he is a viable underdog play. My pick is WELLS but something tells me to tread lightly here so I will probably just pass on betting this one and collect data as a neutral observer for future reference.
JASMINE JASUDAVICIUS-265(7-1) VS NATALIA SILVA+215(12-5-1):
I watched a fair bit of tape on SILVA who will be making her UFC debut on Saturday night and I wasn’t overly impressed with any aspect of her game. Her striking is largely centered around throwing kicks and while her jiujitsu seems serviceable I question the level of competition that I saw her use it on. In her pre ufc fight with MARINA RODRIGUEZ she got lit up and repeatedly dumped to the canvas but credit to her for going the distance in that one even though she looked totally gassed and outclassed. I suspect JASUDAVICIUS will have a significant size advantage here as well as a significant advantage on the ground and the pure boxing advantage. Perhaps it is recency bias based on JASUDAVICIUS’ stellar UFC debut versus Kay HANSEN but I am firmly on the JASUDAVICIUS side here. I think the rookie SILVA is in for a rough UFC debut at the hands of JASUDAVICIUS who has all the momentum coming into this fight. I am usually not a big narrative guy but it almost feels like the ufc is handing JASUDAVICIUS a slam dunk opportunity here and I would be very surprised if she somehow managed to lose this fight. I will be using JASUDAVICIUS in a 2 fighter parlay and I might take a small poke at her ITD line.
ADRIAN YANEZ-332(15-3) VS TONY KELLEY+279(8-2):
Given YANEZ’S impressive UFC campaign thus far, it is very difficult to go against him. He has outstanding boxing skills and a very good fight IQ. He is one of the brightest new prospects on the UFC roster. On the other KELLEY has shown himself to be a battle tested warrior who is very game and he too possesses a fairly elevated fight IQ. I suspect that YANEZ will have the advantage on the feet and that KELLEY will likely have the advantage on the ground but I think YANEZ’s Takedown defense will hold up here which means that he should be able to dictate the pace of this fight and where it takes place. I want to take the plus money dog shot on KELLEY because he has shown himself to be quite capable in the Octagon but it just feels like I might be throwing money away if I were to bet against YANEZ. My pick is ADRIAN YANEZ and I think he wins by decision so I will likely play that prop if the odds are worth the squeeze.
JULIAN MARQUEZ+167(9-2)VS GREGORY RODRIGUES-189(11-4):
Both of these athletes have shown themselves to be very skilled and both of them are very entertaining all action fighters. However it is RODRIGUES who really stands out to me in this matchup. This guy has nasty striking and his Jiujitsu is top notch. The only knock on him is his DWCS KO loss to Jordan Williams who has since been cut from the UFC. MARQUEZ could most definitely pull off the upset here but I’m more inclined to believe that RODRIGUES will be the one getting his hand raised when the dust settles. Again these odds are giving me reason to pause when it comes to laying the chalk on RODRIGUES but I will use him as a parlay piece. I wanted to bet him to win ITD but MARQUEZ has shown himself to be very durable so I’m not sure I want to take a chance on a method of victory prop but I do think RODRIGUES gets it done come fight night.
DAMIR ISMAGULOV-169(23-1) VS GURAM KUTATELADZE+151(12-2):
This matchup strikes me as more of a pick ’em but given ISMAGULOV’S impressive record and the fact that his last name ends in OV I totally understand why the bookies are favoring him in this spot. However ISMAGULOV is largely a decision fighter, particularly when he is facing quality opponents and to my mind KUTATELADZE has way more finishing upside. Add to that the fact that he beat highly touted prospect MATEUSZ GAMROT by decision in their UFC debuts and I’m inclined to believe that we have a very live dog here. This is a very risky play but I’m going to take the plus money dog shot and play KUTATELADZE’S ML. Scared money don’t make money as the saying goes and this feels like a calculated risk that could very well pay dividends come fight night. KUTATELADZE for the win.
JOAQUIN BUCKLEY+172(14-4) VS ALBERT DURAEV-193(15-3):
This is a tough fight to handicap in my opinion. Both of these athletes have a great deal of promise but I think DURAEV is the more well rounded fighter here. That said, I do have some concerns about how he will fare versus BUCKLEY who has shown himself to be a very game opponent that has dynamic striking skills. I wanted to take the plus money dog shot on BUCKLEY but I don’t know that his ground game will hold up against DURAEV who has shown a diverse ground attack. I’m going to pick DURAEV to win but I will be passing altogether on this one from a betting standpoint because I could see both of these fighters impose their will come fight night. However if I were to bet this fight I would most likely take the plus money dog shot on BUCKLEY.
TIM MEANS +188(32-11) VS KEVIN HOLLAND-214(22-7):
I’m really not sure what to make of this fight. On one hand we have the newly revamped HOLLAND at 170lbs who has shown himself to be a very competent striker with some glaring holes in his ground game but he has also shown himself to be an opportunistic jiujitsu player against lesser opponents. On the other we have TIM “dirty bird” MEANS who is a very well rounded fighter with a wealth of UFC level experience that spans several years with the promotion. However there is a certain level of opponent that has consistently proven to be too much for MEANS. I’m just not sure if HOLLAND is on that level and I don’t think I can lay the chalk to find out. This is another hard pass for me but again if I was to put my money on this fight I would likely take the plus money dog shot on “the dirty bird” MEANS. FULL DISCLOSURE: MEANS is one of my favorite fighters on the UFC roster so I’m probably a little biased here. I will not be betting on this fight but my pick is KEVIN HOLLAND and that is based solely on his youth and new found form.
DONALD CERRONE-165 (36-16) VS JOE LAUZON+147 (26-16):
When this fight was originally scheduled I was all over CERRONE. His striking is light years beyond what LAUZON brings to the table and his ground game is somewhat commensurate with LAUZON’s even though popular opinion would probably favor LAUZON on the ground. What concerns me though is the slow starts that CERRONE has consistently shown. He always says he’s going to come out with a sense of urgency but as far as I can remember he almost always gives away the first couple of minutes of the opening round and he has been burned on more than one occasion by this approach. This could be very problematic for him against LAUZON who tends to come out like a bat out of hell that is looking for war. I’m still going to pick CERRONE to win but due the volatile nature of this match up this will be another hard pass for me from a betting standpoint.
CALVIN KATTAR-234(23-5) VS JOSH EMMETT+206 (17-2):
This should be an outstanding main event to cap off what will undoubtedly be another great evening of fights. I’m picking KATTAR to win here based on his extremely technical boxing skills but I am worried about EMMETT’S power and durability. KATTAR is almost surgical with his hands and he has a great chin but it’s almost a foregone conclusion that he will be separated from consciousness if EMMETT manages to clip him. This is a 25 minute main event and there is a very real possibility that EMMETT will land the seminal knockout blow at some point. EMMETT has tremendous power and he carries it late into the fight. However I think this will be EMMETT’s first 5 round main event so it remains to be seen how he will fare in the championship rounds but I suspect that he will be live for the KO for as long as the fight lasts. If it were anyone other than KATTAR with his sublime boxing ability I would take the plus money dog shot on EMMETT but after what KATTAR was able to do to GIGA CHIKADZE in his last outing I cannot pick against him. I will be betting KATTAR to win by decision because this is the main event and as such I feel like I have to have some sort of action on the headliners.
As always fade me or follow me at your own peril and above all enjoy the fights.
Be sure to check out my full card recap for all the betting results right here at WE WANT PICKS.