First things first, what an incredible PPV event we just experienced in UFC 275. It didn’t go our way from a prediction perspective going 6/11 on our H2H picks, and 1-1 on best bets. As a fan, we were spoiled by the displays of each athlete, and 5 performances of the night bonuses were a testament to how incredible the card was.
Play Hard to Bet Parlay – Lock of the week (Best Bet #1)
Similar to UFC 275, there appears to be a couple of evenly matched contests which is a recipe for interesting fights, but does make it difficult to maintain accurate predictions. However, I am confident we have got some value in this week’s lock of the week, which so far has hit at a 100% clip.
Leg 1 – Adrian Yanez H2H
Adrian Yanez is a very fluid striker, and his footwork makes him difficult to take down, which will likely be the game plan implemented by his opponent Tony Kelley. Kelley is a well-rounded fighter, but I think he’s going to really struggle with Yanez’s speed and elusiveness. Yanez is also a powerful striker, and I think he may be able to shut the lights out within the first two rounds of this fight. But for the safety of the parlay, I’ll be taking the Mexican to win this fight head-to-head, with no particular outcome.
Leg 2 – Phil Hawes H2H
The next leg will be Phil Hawes to defeat Deron Winn. We know Winn is an expert at single leg takedowns, but he does not offer much else unfortunately. The control time that he may attain doesn’t hold much weight in terms of the judges’ scorecards as we saw in the Shevchenko vs Santos fight. Provided Hawes can land the more meaningful strikes and prevent an excessive control time deficit by defending takedowns, he should easily be able to pile on the damage to either stop this fight or win the decision.
Leg 3 – Cody Stamann H2H
Lastly, I’ll be on Cody Stamann to round out the parlay. I do not like the matchmaking here as Eddie Wineland appears to be a little past his prime. Eddie has some decent boxing skills, but often loads up too much in an attempt to inflict more power. This makes him susceptible to the volume takedowns of Stamann, who is relentless in his approach. I’m expecting Stamann to accumulate a lot of top control via several takedowns, which will really limit Wineland’s ability to throw or land anything significant.
Damir Ismagulov vs Guram Kutateladze to go the distance (Best Bet #2)
Kutatladze is a brutal striker that is also well versed in the grappling department. His second outing in the UFC may be just as difficult and his debut performance, which was a razor thin split decision win against now ranked contender Matuesz Gamrot. It has been 18 months since his debut, but he has a wealth of good training partners he can spar with including Khamzat Chimaev.
Ismagulov was knocked down by his previous opponent Rafael Alves which was very surprising, but he recovered well and managed to win the fight comfortably. He’s showcased a well-rounded skill set throughout his career emassing a very impressive 23-1 record.
These opponents are very evenly matched and although I anticipate that Damir’s wrestling will be the difference maker, I truly believe this fight could go either way. Both fighters have proven durability and seem to be at a similar level in terms of their skill sets. It is a compelling matchup that could steal the show, and I am confident that it will be a 15 minute war, which is why our best bet for this fight will be for it to last the full 3 rounds.
I am optimistic we can bounce back this week and return to form! If you are following my tips make sure you do your own research and gamble responsibly. Enjoy the fights