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UFC 280 FanDuel Breakdown

by | Oct 21, 2022 | FanDuel

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The UFC 280 slate is upon us, and to say it is the most anticipated card of the year could very well be an understatement. This card kicks off at 10am eastern in Abu Dhabi with a main card ready to start at 2pm eastern standard time. Everyone is ready for this show.

When it comes to your FanDuel lineups you will need to hunt down the big scorers which might be a bit different this slate due to the card being loaded up with wrestlers. Wrestlers that don’t finish don’t do much for us unfortunately on FanDuel so avoiding those traps will be crucial for success. 

Below you will see my recommended fights to target on the FanDuel slate for UFC 280. If you have any questions please don’t hesitate to tweet @WeWantPicks on Twitter and they will definitely get back to you ASAP. 

 

FIGHT #1 TO TARGET (-450 FDGTD)

ISLAM MAKHACHEV ($19) vs. CHARLES OLIVEIRA ($13)

Before I jump into the breakdown on each side here, I just want to state that I find myself in a weird situation with this fight when it comes to FanDuel. On DraftKings I would 100% be selecting Islam Makhachev as I think he does win the fight and he has the wrestling upside. When it comes to FanDuel however, I actually think the value is on Charles Oliveira as he is wildly cheap on the platform and his fight style is conducive to a higher FanDuel score in a win. Ultimately you will need to make the decision between who you think wins and where you believe the value to be as well.

Islam Makhachev is a chain wrestling monster. The Dagestani strength and conditioning make him an incredible force within the octagon. Currently he is averaging almost three and a half takedowns per fifteen minutes, and boasts an impressive striking differential due to not hardly ever being hit. His striking defense is currently at 68% which is borderline amazing. Makhachev will be the first opponent in a long while not scared to go to the ground with Oliveira, and in fact actually will prefer it.

Charles Oliveira on the other side is for all rational purposes the current champion and for you to be able to get a current champion for only $13 feels wrong. I have been playing against Oliveira for about three fights now and each time he makes me feel silly. This time I am once again doubting him, but at his price tag I simply cannot ignore placing him in my lineup. Oliveria will have the advantage in the stand up for as long as this fight stays standing, and does have the only true knockout upside in this match up. His submission game is some of the very best in the UFC as well, so when Islam ultimately gets the fight to the mat, Charles Oliveira is still plenty live for a wild finish.

Whichever way this one goes, it will most likely not go the distance. We should see a finish in one direction or the other within three rounds here.

 

FIGHT #2 TO TARGET (-280 FDGTD)

ARMEN PETROSYAN ($20) vs. A.J. DOBSON ($11)

I am fairly confident you can rearrange the letters in these guys' names and spell knockout. Truthfully I know you can’t, but bonus points if you tried. This one will be a banger though, and should end in a knockout – or at least a very nicely paced three round score.  

Armen Petrosyan is coming off a rough loss to Caio Borralho who is also fighting on this card, but he lost that fight because he couldn’t deal with the high level grappling, and he likely won’t see any of that in this matchup. Petrosyan is a very accurate striker who currently has a very favorable striking differential. His pace and pressure is solid, averaging over five significant strikes landed per minute. The only reservation I have regarding him as a striker is that while he stands tall at 6’3’’ he actually has very short arms for that size, and he will be giving up a five inch reach advantage to the shorter fighter in this one as well.  

A.J. Dobson is not too far removed from Dana White’s Contender Series, only having one UFC fight following his performance there. That fight was against Jacob Malkoun and much like Petrosyan in his last one, he couldn’t handle the wrestling/grappling. He gave up six takedowns and only managed to get off about 30 significant strikes. The read on Dobson is that he is very dangerous for the first round, but his longevity is questionable due to poor striking defense. He is very live in the first round for a finish, but could become the victim of one as the fight goes on.

 

FIGHT #3 TO TARGET (-250 FDGTD)

NIKITA KRYLOV ($16) vs. VOLKAN OEZDEMIR ($13)

This fight has finish written all over it. Krylov doesn’t like seeing the judges and I expect to see a stand up war between these two. If a takedown does take place, I expect it to be from the Oezdemir side, but even that is unlikely. 

Using the eye test this fight is way closer than the betting line or the fantasy salaries make it out to be. Rather than breaking down each fighter individually here, I will just highlight the style of each fighter. 

Krylov probably has more power and his style is a bit more loose while Oezdemir is the more technical fighter in my opinion and likely has the better fight IQ. Also keep in mind that while the finish is possible from both sides, it is more likely from the Krylov side, as Oezdemir will stay outside and score points if needed. 

 

GOOD LUCK THIS WEEKEND

Good look to all heading into this event. If you are watching it at home make sure to follow along with @WeWantPicks on Twitter for live bets. Also make sure to tweet your winning lineups at us and we will do our best to recognize your greatness. 

Enjoy the event, and make sure to keep it locked on We Want Picks for tons of great MMA content.

Josh Allen

Contributing Analyst

Hey everyone! My name is Josh Allen, no relation to the FNP guys. I am a proud father, freelance web designer, and future gulag spades champion. I am a fan of the NFL and the UFC. I do a little part time analysis work for the latter. Take whatever you read from me with a grain of salt as I am far more fan than anything else. Do your own research and make your own decisions. I am not a financial advisor and take no responsibility for your plays.

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