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UFC 279 FanDuel Slate Breakdown

by | Sep 9, 2022 | FanDuel

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We have had some theatrics coming into UFC 279 already at the press conference, and the hope is that nothing wild happens between now and the event that will further complicate the fantasy and betting landscape.

Assuming nothing changes, this card is pretty solid through a DFS lens. We have numerous live dogs to choose from, several dominant favorites, and even a few “well they probably won’t get finished” safe floor type of fighters. Picking those live dogs accurately will of course be the deciding factor between poverty and prosperity.  

Below you will see my FanDuel breakdown for UFC 279, if you have any questions please don’t hesitate to comment below as well and I will do my best to answer them!

 

BUILD STYLE

STARS & SCRUBS

I will be all in on a Stars and Scrubs build this week. The middle range of salaries is a bit sketchy in my opinion. The heavily favored fighters are mostly capable of huge scores and that makes it hard to pass on them. When you couple that with several low salary fighters that are capable of wins, it makes a perfect storm for a Stars and Scrubs build.

For the Stars and Scrubs approach at UFC 279 you want to find three fighters that you are incredibly confident in at the top of the salary range. Then you would look to add two budget fighters (around $11 average price), and then plug the last fighter in based on what you have left. 

If you build this lineup style correctly you could secure both Khamzat Chimaev and Jailton Almeida in the same lineup, and both of those fighters are going to produce insane scores by most accounts.

 

FAVORITE PLAY

KHAMZAT CHIMAEV – $23

All week long I have been hearing about Nate Diaz’s durability. To be honest, I think Nate Diaz is one of the most overrated fighters in UFC history. Yes, he is game. Yes, he gives everything he has in there. Yes, I can appreciate that as a fight fan. The truth is however that Nate Diaz’s best skill is how he gets beat up. He takes a beating like few others are capable of. I think he is about to take one like he has not taken before.

My prediction for this fight is a quick slam or two to get the fight to the ground, and then some of the most vicious ground and pound to finish it up inside of the first round. That will obviously produce an enormous score and it will be a score that I need in my lineup.

Khamzat is not the machine we thought he was in my opinion, and against some of the top fighters in his weight division I expect to see the hype train stopped in its tracks. Diaz isn’t one of the top fighters in the division however, no matter how badly the fans would like him to be, and with a 41% takedown defense – this is a lamb being led to the slaughter.  

 

VALUE PLAY

DANIEL RODRIGUEZ – $12

When I first saw him on DraftKings priced at $7500 I thought he had merit, but on FanDuel – where his fighting style scores better – at only $12 Rodriguez offers us a great value. This is especially true in single entry and cash where you don’t need huge scores, or even wins some of the time, to see a nice return on your entry fee. 

To be clear I do think that this fight goes to Kevin Holland, but I don’t think it’s as wide of a skill gap as the betting line suggests. I am very confident that this fight won’t be going to the ground at all, as neither of these fighters want the fight there. If it does hit the ground I think Holland’s BJJ will give him his best chance to finish the fight. Both fighters being strikers however, neither will be trying to get it there. 

Rodriguez is a tough fighter to finish, and this leads me to believe that we will get three rounds of scoring from this one, and Rodriguez could possibly steal a decision. This makes him a great value in my opinion at only $12 and gives us plenty of room to stack higher priced fighters together in a Stars and Scrubs build. 

 

FIGHT TO TARGET

HAKEEM DAWODU – $19 / JULIAN EROSA – $13

Before I get into the why here, let me tell you about the why not. On DraftKings I would choose to stay away from Dawodu completely. His salary is too high for a guy that historically doesn’t finish. On FanDuel his heavy striking gameplan plays into his favor however, even in a decision. So that means on one side of this one we have a skilled striker that is capable of putting up a solid score even in a decision, and on the other side we have a live dog that is more than capable of putting someone’s lights out. 

Hakeem Dawodu is a very skilled technical striker with an insane striking differential. He has two losses in the UFC. Those losses would be in his debut where he was caught in an early sub, and then a decision loss to Mosvar Evolev where he stayed strike for strike with him, but was taken down 9 times. That means it is very difficult to beat Dawodu, and the odds are considerably smaller if you are not a wrestler. 

Julian Erosa is an exciting fighter, but very inconsistent. When he wins he scores huge, but when he loses he gives up an equal amount of points in the other direction. If Erosa had one saving grace, it would be that he has been incorporating takedowns in his last few fights and that could be his path here. Unfortunately trusting Erosa to not just go in there and engage in a fire fight is tough. 

For me I will be on the Erosa side of this one, just because I need to find a couple low priced fighters to squeeze into my lineup that are capable of big scores, but I could definitely see going the other direction and using Dawodu as the third fighter in the “stars” portion of the build as well. This fight is going to be an ideal fight to have a piece of on FanDuel, which piece remains to be seen however.

 

GOOD LUCK THIS WEEKEND

Good look to all heading into this event. If you are watching it at home make sure to follow along with @WeWantPicks on Twitter for live bets. Also make sure to tweet your winning lineups at us and we will do our best to recognize your greatness. 

Enjoy the event, and make sure to keep it locked on We Want Picks for tons of great MMA content.

Josh Allen

Contributing Analyst

Hey everyone! My name is Josh Allen, no relation to the FNP guys. I am a proud father, freelance web designer, and future gulag spades champion. I am a fan of the NFL and the UFC. I do a little part time analysis work for the latter. Take whatever you read from me with a grain of salt as I am far more fan than anything else. Do your own research and make your own decisions. I am not a financial advisor and take no responsibility for your plays.

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