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UFC 278 Quick Picks and Betting Guide

by | Aug 15, 2022 | Fight Preview

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This is the 20th edition of RAPID FIRE QUICK PICKS wherein I will be giving you my insights as well as my actual bets for UFC 278 which looks like another excellent PPV offering chalk full of interesting matchups that are full of ROI potential. I went 7-6 on my predictions for UFC San Diego which cost me $110 on all of betting/dfs action. However I have already made my peace with it and I am hoping to make up the deficit before we head into the ten day break leading into September. 

 

DANIEL DA SILVA+175 (11-2) VS VICTOR ALTAMIRANO-220 (10-2):

I’m going to take the plus money dog shot on DA SILVA to get the evening started. To be clear I am not overly confident about this play but something tells me that DA SILVA will find his Octagon feet and his first ufc victory in what will be his 3rd UFC appearance. I’m not impressed with either one of these fighters but I think DA SILVA has way more finishing upside and I’m willing to sprinkle his ML at plus money. I think that ALTAMIRANO’s win condition is most likely a decision but even then I’m expecting a very close fight.  When I factor in DA SILVA’S finishing upside, I feel like it’s worth a small play on the plus money. However I would be negligent if I didn’t point out that I feel like this is basically a coin toss so proceed with caution regardless of what side you decide to play. 

 

AORI QILENG-180(22-9) VS JAY PERRIN+155(10-5):

I’m going to be on QILENG in this one. I think he is the more dynamic fighter here and I expect that he will be able to impose his will wherever this fight plays out. PERRIN is definitely a grinder and he has great cardio but his style is takedown dependent from what I’ve seen. He will likely try to drag QILENG the ground or push him up against the cage but I think QILENG Will be able to defend and win the striking exchanges. I could be way off here but this seems like a slight step up in competition for PERRIN. QILENG has the edge in experience and strength of schedule so this is a favorite or pass scenario for me. I will probably play QILENG by decision and I will look to use him as a parlay piece.

 

AMIR ALBAZI(14-1)-380 VS FRANCISCO FIGUEIREDO+310 (13-4-1):

Unlike a lot of people in the MMA betting community I am not a FIGUEIREDO hater. I think he is a decent fighter who has the misfortune of being in the shadow of his world champion brother. “Fake Figgy” is actually quite capable on the ground and he has decent striking so I don’t think he will be completely outclassed here. However I have to go with ALBAZI in this matchup. I think he has a significant advantage on the ground and I expect the stand up to be pretty competitive. I’m not  crazy about this chalky price but I definitely think ALBAZI is the rightful favorite. I haven’t decided if I’m going to bet on this fight but if I do my money will be on ALBAZI. 

 

AJ FLETCHER-150 (9-1) VS ANGE LOOSA+130(8-3):

I’m gonna be on FLETCHER here. I think he has the advantage wherever this fight plays out. That said I have been impressed with LOOSA thus far even though he has yet to win under the ufc banner. I’m not sure how much of an investment I want to make on FLETCHER but I do think he is on the right side and I will definitely play his Money Line. Given LOOSA’s durability and skill level I think this one will likely go to the judges scorecards but  FLETCHER ITD is not a bad look either because he is a prolific finisher and he can get it done by KO or by submission. As much as I respect LOOSA for his tenacity, I feel like the FLETCHER play is a no brainer at this price. Hopefully I’m not overvaluing him. 

 

SEAN WOODSON-295(9-1) VS LUIS SALDANA+245(16-7):

I’m going to be on WOODSON in this one. I expect this to be a striking affair and as such  WOODSON will have the reach to compliment what should be a significant boxing advantage. SALDANA is a decent striker in his own right but I think WOODSON will throw more volume with more accuracy. My biggest concern is that SALDANA might resort to a grappling heavy, club & sub style approach if he manages to hurt WOODSON on the feet. JULIAN EROSA was able to do exactly that when he fought WOODSON but in this case I fully expect WOODSON to win most of the striking exchanges so hopefully the club and sub will not be on the menu here. Of course this is high level MMA so anything is possible but to my mind WOODSON has been the more impressive of the two and I think he will prevail on fight night. WOODSON by Decision is not a bad look because I don’t expect him to score a knock out here but I will probably look to use him in a two fighter parlay. I also like FGTD for this one but I expect that prop will be fairly  chalky so I’m not sure it will be worth the squeeze. I like WOODSON quite a bit here so I’m going to trust myself and lay the chalk on him.

 

YANAN WU+135(13-5) VS LUCIE PUDILOVA-155(13-7):

To be perfectly honest this is not a fight that I am particularly excited about. After watching the tape on these two it’s hard to imagine that this fight will be anything but a boring 3 round affair that goes to the scorecards. My best guess is that PUDILOVA will have a slight striking advantage and I believe she will probably get the better of any exchanges that take place on the ground. Both of these ladies are on 3&4 fight skids respectively so you have to think this is a loser gets cut scenario. There just is not a lot to be excited about here. Perhaps the ladies will come out guns blazing and prove me wrong but I’m gonna say this fight goes to decision and I expect PUDILOVA will be the one getting her hand raised when it’s all said and done. I will not be betting this one though because I can’t get an accurate beat on either one of these ladies but in my humble opinion PUDILOVA is the right side here. 

 

LEONARDO SANTOS+260 (18-6-1) VS JARED GORDON-315 (18-5):

This is a very interesting matchup between two high level veterans of the game and I expect it to be a candidate for FOTN. I am extremely tempted to take the big plus money shot on SANTOS but he is the much older fighter here and he is coming into this one on a two fight skid so I have to question his durability at this point. In terms of ability and technical acumen, I feel like these two are evenly matched even though SANTOS has a significant jiujitsu advantage on paper. I also think SANTOS has a slight edge in the striking department but again his durability could very well be waning due to his age and fight mileage. GORDON is a seasoned veteran with a very well rounded skill set and he is very game. GORDON has also fared significantly better in his last three outings so he is likely the rightful favorite here.  Nonetheless I think SANTOS is a viable underdog here so I will  play his ML but it is a risky play to say the least and as such I will be proceeding with caution. In terms of a pick I have to agree with the bookies and say that GORDON should probably win here but given the respective skill sets I think there is value on SANTOS so this is a dog or pass scenario for me. Hopefully SANTOS can deliver the upset. 

TYSON PEDRO-740(8-3) VS HARRY HUNSUCKER+540(7-5):

This is PEDRO all day as far as I’m concerned. I took a small shot on HUNSUCKER against Justin TAFA and I felt like an idiot for it when I trashed my ticket so I’m not prepared to revisit any kind of dog shot on him no matter how fat the odds are. Unfortunately some UFC fighters are little more than cannon fodder when it comes to the UFC pecking order and thus far HUNSUCKER has been little more than a sacrificial lamb.  I really don’t mean to be disrespectful because I have the utmost admiration and reverence for all UFC athletes but at this point I’m of the opinion that any kind of wager on HUNSUCKER is basically a donation to the bookie and I just won’t do it. That said I can’t bet PEDRO at these odds even though they are probably quite accurate. I might decide to play PEDRO rd1 or ITD or by KO or by submission but I expect that all of those options will likely be very juiced as well so this looks like it’s going to have to be a hard pass from a betting standpoint. FDGTD is pretty much a sure thing here and I don’t say that very often but I expect that prop will also be heavy chalk. Sometimes all we can do is sit back and watch the slaughter. If HUNSUCKER somehow manages to pull off the upset here I will be very impressed.

 

MARCIN TYBURA+285(22-7) VS ALEXANDER ROMANOV-345 (16-0):

I think TYBURA could definitely pose some problems for ROMANOV in this spot. This line seems way too wide to me given TYBURA’S high level skill set and experience but there is no denying the brute force and dominant wrestling that ROMANOV brings to the table here. However I keep going back to his performance against Juan Espino where he was clearly losing until he was hit with a low blow that gave him the out he needed to preserve his undefeated record. I think TYBURA is probably the better striker and if he manages to get on top of ROMANOV he might end up looking like the favorite. I’m picking ROMANOV to get it done here but I’m taking a small dog shot on TYBURA because I think he’s being undervalued. It is definitely a risky play and I do not recommend tailing me on this one but I have to take the dog shot because I don’t think ROMANOV should be -345 in this spot. This is one of those plays that feels very counter intuitive, ROMANOV is undefeated and so far he’s been a force of nature in the Octagon, if he does not meet any resistance he will almost certainly look like a 5 to 1 favorite but I think this could prove to be his toughest test to date. My pick is ROMANOV but the odds are too wide for my liking and almost every fighter in the history of the sport loses their 0 at some point so it’s not inconceivable that TYBURA could bounce him from the ranks of the undefeated. The plus money dog shot is calling to me here and I’m going to answer the call.

 

JOSE ALDO+105(31-7) VS MERAB DVALISHVILLI-125 (14-4): 

I have been agonizing over this fight because I keep coming to different conclusions every time I ponder it. I expect that this one will likely be hotly contested on MMA Twitter. It’s no secret that DVALISHVILLI will want to take this to ground and pound him out which he is usually able to do with relative ease but ALDO has superb take down defense and if this fight stays on the feet I have to believe ALDO will piece him up for all 3 rounds. The problem with that theory is that DVALISHVILLI is absolutely relentless and it’s hard to imagine that he will not be able to get this to the ground at some point. There are levels to this as the saying goes and both of these guys are very high level in their respective strengths. I am not betting on this fight because there are just too many variables for my liking but I would not be the least bit surprised if ALDO’S experience and fight IQ won the day for him here. He is absolutely a live dog in this spot but I’m not about to bet against DVALISHVILLI’s insane cardio and pace so I absolutely have to pass on this one. I’m gonna guess that DVALISHVILLI finds a way to win here, but I want to emphasize that this is a guess so proceed with caution folks because this one screams volatility. Variance is an ugly word when you end up on the wrong side of it.

 

PAULO COSTA-270(13-2) VS LUKE ROCKHOLD+220(16-5):

I absolutely love Paulo COSTA he is a marauder and he usually comes ready for war. This dude has crazy knock out power and he knows how to use it but I’m not so sure he should be an almost 3 to 1 favorite against the former middleweight champion ROCKHOLD. GRANTED,  ROCKHOLD has not fought in three years and he was brutally knocked out in his last two fights but this might be a scenario where the time off has allowed him to regroup and get back to what made him so dangerous when he was at his peak. ROCKHOLD has fantastic submissions and his Kickboxing is quite lethal when he’s firing on all cylinders but I don’t think I can bet him until I see how he looks after such a long lay off. This could just as easily be a scenario where the game has seemingly passed him by similarly to what we saw from Alex GUSTAFSON or Miesha TATE. I haven’t decided if I’m going to have any betting interest on this one but I’m tentatively picking COSTA to get it done here. He looked great in his last outing against Marvin VETTORI and even though he lost in that one, I have to believe that a similar performance against ROCKHOLD would be enough to get his hand raised. So the pick is COSTA but this will most likely be a pass from a betting standpoint. 

 

KAMARU USMAN-340 (20-1) VS LEON EDWARDS+280 (19-3):

USMAN is widely considered by many people as the pound for pound best on the planet right now and while I personally think VOLKANOVSKI is #1 p4p guy at the moment I would definitely put put USMAN at #2. He just doesn’t have a lot weaknesses that can be exploited. There is no denying his dominance at 170 lbs. That said I kind of think that EDWARDS might be able to dethrone USMAN so I’m going  to go way out on a limb and fade the champ in this spot. I’m fully aware of the risk here, USMAN could very well do USMAN things and put me to shame for even considering a bet against him but in terms of gambling I think all the value is on EDWARDS. He has a well rounded arsenal and at very least I think he will give a good account of himself in what is undoubtedly the biggest fight of his career. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not foolish enough to think that he will run through USMAN, if he does manage to dethrone the champ it will almost certainly be the fight on the century. These odds are lined as such for a reason and conventional wisdom dictates that USMAN should retain his title come fight night but I think think EDWARDS is a viable underdog here so I’m going to take a small poke at his ML. My pick is USMAN “and still” but I’m going to play the value and bet EDWARDS because I feel like it would be a shame to pass up an opportunity to fade the champ against a bonafide challenger. Colby Covington came close to dethroning USMAN once upon a time and I feel like EDWARDS has an opportunity to shock the world here so I’m going for it.

 

I think this card will showcase some decent fights but I am expecting the main, Co-main, and featured bouts to be true blue barn burners of the highest order. This is the last card in a string of 12 consecutive weeks of shows before the UFC goes dark for a week. If you have been reading this article over the past few months then you know that off weeks are the bane of existence because I’m a complete and utter fight fiend but I suppose even uncle Dana and Co. need time off like everyone else from time to time so I will do my very best to appreciate the break despite how much I am dreading it. WHO KNOWS, I might even welcome the week off if we can go into this break on a winning note.

AS ALWAYS FADE ME OR FOLLOW ME AT YOUR OWN PERIL AND ABOVE ALL ENJOY THE GIFT THAT IS MIXED MARTIAL ARTS AT THE HIGHEST LEVEL. 

Frank Jodouin

Contributing Analyst

I started betting on fights in 2016, and have watched every single fight on every live event for almost seven years running. To put it plainly, I am a fight junkie, and Dana White is my dealer. I write content because I'm so passionate about this sport and I am honored to be a member of the We Want Picks team. I love to talk fights and share the knowledge I have accrued over the years as I continue to learn about the greatest the sport on planet earth.

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