Last week was a shock to say the least, in fact, I think I might have been competing for the lowest score ever in fantasy history. Virtually no one that I had in my lineup won their fight. An unfortunate week to say the least. Hoping to bounce back at UFC 278, but in all honesty the pricing is very sharp this week and building a lineup that I will be confident in is proving to be difficult.
UFC 278 has tons of wrestlers on the slate, and for DraftKings that means big scores in coming. For FanDuel however that means avoiding the 70 point landmines. Wrestling just isn’t rewarded as heavily here because they do not score advances, reversals, control time, or those little strikes in close that DraftKings scores. So instead I try to target strikers that I am confident in to win, and maybe even some I am not because of the tightness of the pricing.
Below you will see my FanDuel breakdown for UFC 278, if you have any questions please don’t hesitate to comment below and I will do my best to answer them!
BUILD STYLE
STARS & SCRUBS
For UFC 278 it will be hard to build a lineup that you can be confident in if your target is six (or even five) wins. Normally a balanced approach on a favorite heavy slate like this would be the approach, but because half of those mid-range fighters are wrestlers that won’t score well on FanDuel unless they finish, it becomes significantly more difficult.
So instead the plan for me this week is to load up on the most active strikers that I am almost positive are going to win at the top of my lineup, or wrestlers that I am confident in to produce a finish. Then fill out the rest with lower salaried fighters who may not win, but I think can at least go the distance and give me a chance to see that win.
To intentionally pick someone that I truly believe will lose the fight, just not lose the fight too badly, is something that I generally only like to do once on my entry. Unfortunately this pricing makes me think I will need to have that feeling about at least two fighters on my lineup.
FAVORITE PLAY
ALEXANDR ROMANOV – $20
After all my talk about avoiding wrestlers above, it may come as a surprise that I have selected a wrestler in this spot. Romanov is more than a wrestler though, he is a Moldovan tank that runs through everything in his path. I expect Tybura to be no different.
There are many making a case for Tybura, and a fair one, that he will be Romanov’s biggest test to this point. I don’t disagree with that point, but I expect him to pass that test with flying colors. One of the common reasons given is the fight that Romanov had with Espino. I think people are making a mountain out of a molehill with that fight. Espino is one of the best grapplers in the heavyweight division, and has pretty solid wrestling as well. Espino averages over 8 takedowns per 15 minutes and has 6 of his 10 wins coming from submissions. He went to the ground four times with Romanov on his choosing, and then twice by Romanovs choosing, and didn’t get a submission. That's a solid showing in my book for Romanov. Did he lose that fight? Maybe, but he avoided a fate that most didnt on the ground with Espino.
Romanov will definitely be chalk on DraftKings, and probably will be on FanDuel as well unfortunately. In small field single entry I don’t avoid the chalk just because though, and I like Romanov to get a finish over Tybura fairly easily.
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VALUE PLAY
LEON EDWARDS – $15
Regardless of how heavy I am on Kamaru Usman to win this fight, I cannot ignore that Edwards being so cheap on both platforms is really disrespectful for a fighter that hasn’t lost in as long as I can remember. Not to mention he has really solid wrestling skills and likely holds a significant advantage in striking. He is slightly less of a value on FanDuel than he is on DraftKings, but still clearly the best value on the slate in my opinion.
If you have been in the We Want Picks Discord lately you have probably seen the wild conspiracy theories concerning this fight, and I can assure you if Leon manages to win the tin foil hats will be equipped in the Discord for the next several events.
Edwards may not win this fight, and I have prepared myself for that, but from the lower priced fighters on this slate he has the safest floor, and if the numerology and deep state deem it so – he will get the win by design and bring my lineup into the green.
FIGHT TO TARGET
TYSON PEDRO – $22/HARRY HUNSUCKER- $8
This fight is almost guaranteed to end inside the distance. Hunsucker is very much a kill or be killed fighter. As the heavy favorite, Pedro will be very highly owned, but that might not be a horrible thing depending on how fast he finishes in his win.
The consensus here is that Pedro gets a few takedowns that lead to ground and pound or club and sub for the win. Personally, while I do agree that is the likely outcome, I do not think Hunsucker is as bad of a play that everyone else thinks he is. First he is only $8 and if he wins it will almost surely be by knockout. That's a big score for $8. Hunsucker is going against an opponent that really isn’t good either which makes it somewhat more possible than it has been in his last couple fights in the UFC.
Another aspect of this fight that we might be overlooking, Hunsucker is fighting at light heavyweight here instead of heavyweight. He was a small heavyweight fighting monsters in his previous fights, this fight is more size appropriate and I expect his power to be more than adequate for 205.
All of that being said, I am still probably riding on the Pedro side of this one for FanDuel due to the wrestlers not being able to outscore a first round finish. Just something to think about however, especially for anyone doing multi’s – have some Hunsucker just in case!
GOOD LUCK THIS WEEKEND
Good look to all heading into this event. If you are watching it at home make sure to follow along with @WeWantPicks on Twitter for live bets. Also make sure to tweet your winning lineups at us and we will do our best to recognize your greatness.
Enjoy the event, and make sure to keep it locked on We Want Picks for tons of great MMA content.
