Click Here To Go Home

BECOME A MEMBER

CLICK HERE TO JOIN

CLAIM $50 HERE

GET YOUR FREE MONEY

UFC 277: Pena vs. Nunes 2 Complete Betting Guide

by | Jul 25, 2022 | Fight Preview

Premium Membership

BECOME A MEMBER!

Click here to unlock all of our early betting picks, Draftkings analysis, ownership projections, and lineup optimizer for only $10!

Featured Sportsbook

Click Here To Play Round Props On BetOnline

More Betting Partners

Click Here To Play Round Props On BetOnline
Click Here To Play Round Props On BetOnline
Click Here To Play Round Props On BetOnline

You Might Also Enjoy

Road To UFC Singapore: Semi-Finals Preview

Road To UFC Singapore: Semi-Finals Preview

It’s no secret that I loved “Road to UFC: Singapore”, the quarter finals of a tournament in which many fighters from across Asia fight for a UFC contract. There were many standout performances in the quarter finals and I am expecting some great fights when the semi...

UFC Vegas 61 FanDuel Breakdown

UFC Vegas 61 FanDuel Breakdown

That week off was both brutal and refreshing, but we are back for the layover card that is UFC Vegas 61. This event takes place at the Apex Center, but is rumored to be privately rented out by Mark Zuckerburg and friends, so no media or fans will be allowed in the...

UFC Vegas 61 PrizePicks Breakdown

UFC Vegas 61 PrizePicks Breakdown

UFC is back after the one week break and it’s a little bittersweet because we’re going on break next week as well. After this weird one card in three weeks schedule we get the final stretch of the year started with two more banger pay-per views left. This week it’s...

Join Our Email List

This is the 17th edition of RAPID FIRE QUICK PICKS. I will be giving you my insights as well as my actual bets for what looks like another excellent PPV offering from the world’s premier MMA promotion. When it comes to making fights, no one does it like uncle Dana and Co. UFC 277 is chalk full of brilliant high level fighters that consistently deliver the goods and I daresay I see a lot of great spots that we can exploit and capitalize on. 

In terms of last week’s RAPID FIRE QUICK PICKS for UFC LONDON I went 10-3. So I crushed the ML and scored my 4th DraftKings tournament takedown of 2022 which won me $3k on all of my betting/DFS action. 

However that was last week and while I am quite thrilled about the win I have learned that it is not a good look to rest on one’s laurels. The same holds true when we’re talking about losses, it’s never a good idea to dwell on them. Win, lose or draw, we learn and we move on to the next. This is an extremely high variance game that is every bit as cruel as it is kind so it is important to stay grounded and focused on what is coming down the pike. With that in mind these are my picks and my actual bets for UFC 277.

 

ORION COSCE-159(7-1) VS BLOOD DIAMOND+139 (3-1): 

I am not overly familiar with either one of these fighters because they’ve only had one fight a piece under the UFC banner and both men lost their respective debuts in rather devastating fashion. HOWEVER it was COSCE who had the better showing and based on what I’ve seen from these two it is COSCE who has the higher ceiling here.  I think he will likely have the wrestling advantage in this match up and while both fighters look like they might have questionable cardio beyond the 1st round, I think that COSCE probably has the edge in that department as well but it is very difficult to say how a fighter will fare in their sophomore effort after coming off of a loss in their debut. BLOOD DIAMOND only has 4 MMA fights on his record but he is an experienced kick boxer who trains under Eugene Berriman with middleweight world champion Izzy Adesanya and Co. out of the acclaimed city kickboxing gym in New ZEALAND. He will also have a slight size advantage here so while I think COSCE is probably the right side in this one I’m not sure I want to trust him with my money. There is a very real possibility that BLOOD DIAMOND will manage to keep this fight standing and impose his will with striking but there is an equally good chance that COSCE will be able to clinch up and grind out a greasy decision. In terms of ufc level data on these two there just isn’t a lot to go on so it’s probably a good idea to just pass until we see how they fare moving forward. For the purpose of this article I will say that BLOOD DIAMOND is a viable underdog given his Kickboxing pedigree and the high level training partners that he works with.  However, COSCE is still the rightful favorite here so I am picking him to win. However, the bottom line is that I just don’t have a whole lot of confidence in either side here which is why this has to be a hard pass for me.

 

NICOLAE NEGUMERANU+135(12-1) VS IHOR POTIERIA-155(2-2):

Based on the tape I watched I think POTIERIA is the more dynamic striker in this matchup and he has superior footwork.  However he has not faced a very high level of competition which is a big red flag coming into a UFC debut.  In fact I’m quite certain that NEGUMERANU will be the highest caliber opponent POTIERIA faced to date. That said, I’m not a big fan of NEGUMERANU’s plodding style for this matchup. I think he will be at a disadvantage in terms of speed and power here; and short of catching POTIERIA with a big shot I’m just not sure where he wins this fight. I know a lot of people will be employing the DWCS fade in this spot but I am generally not a fan of that approach. I did think long and hard about fading POTIERIA in favor of NEGUMERANU who is the more experienced and more proven commodity at this level but I just can’t overlook the striking advantage that I believe the DWCS graduate brings to this matchup. By the same token I am not exactly comfortable betting the debuting fighter in this spot but my gut tells me he’s the right side here so I’m gonna trust my intuition and play POTIERIA to win by decision in his UFC debut but I will be proceeding with caution. 

 

JI YEONG KIM+105(9-5-2) VS JOCELYN EDWARDS-125(11-4): 

I believe EDWARDS is a late replacement for Maria AGAPOVA here which has me questioning her as the favorite but by the same token I don’t have much faith in KIM. As far as an actual bet on either fighter goes it is absolutely out of the question for me because it is never a good idea to fade a questionable fighter with another questionable fighter. In terms of a pick I have to go with KIM but that is more of a fade on EDWARDS who has gone 2-2 thus far in her UFC campaign. KIM is 3-5 in her UFC campaign but she has faced a much higher level of competition so perhaps there is some value in her in this spot but I’m just not prepared to take the plus money dog shot here even though I think this is a very winnable fight for her. I am picking KIM to pull off the upset but this is a no bet situation.  I’m just not confident enough on either side here so the best play for me is to just pass altogether.

 

ADAM FUGITT +445 (8-2)  VS MICHEAL MORALES -575 (13-0):
Based on the tape I’ve watched Adam Fugitt looks like a very dangerous fighter, he has good wrestling/grappling and he throws big power with very bad intentions on the feet, my concern is the level of competition that he has faced, it’s easy to look good when you’re fighting opponents that will never excel past regional circuits and for as good as he looks on tape I worry that the step up to the UFC will highlight any deficiencies he may have. Morales is an undefeated prospect with a national wrestling title in his native Ecuador,  he also has excellent jiujitsu and excellent striking to compliment his elevated fight IQ. What’s more he is a proven commodity at the UFC level who trains out of Entram gym with killers like Brandon Moreno. I think FUGITT will win some very exciting fights in the UFC but this is a short notice debut for him, against a very high level prospect. I would be very impressed, not to mention surprised if FUGITT somehow managed to win this fight. Don’t get me wrong, he could absolutely catch MORALES slipping and put him to sleep but in all likelihood this will be a MORALES victory. At these odds though there just isn’t any meat on the bone, I would rather take the plus money dog shot on FUGITT than risk almost 6 to 1 on MORALES. The way these two fight I highly doubt this one will make it to the scorecards so FDGTD is probably a good look here.  MORALES ITD is also worth considering and by the same token FUGITT ITD is a decent plus money punt play for those of you who are looking for a long shot. This is MMA at the highest level so there is no such thing as a sure thing, anybody can finish anybody on any given Saturday night at this level so the idea of a big plus dog shot on FUGITT is not completely absurd. I expect this will be an all action affair between two savage prospects looking to make their mark but based on what I’ve seen from these two I have to pick MORALES for the win.

 

RAFA GARCIA+200(14-2) VS DRAKKAR KLOSE -240(12-2-1):

AT first glance I thought GARCIA was a pretty good underdog play in this spot but I’ve been on the wrong side of him every single time that I’ve bet on his fights. Clearly I don’t have the greatest read when it comes to GARCIA so I’m a little gun shy about playing him here.  On the other hand I’m not convinced that KLOSE will pay off the -240 price tag so I think this has to be another hard pass for me. If I was to bet this fight though I would probably play KLOSE at chalk but that would be more of a guess than an actual read. I think KLOSE will be the better striker here and that he will probably be able to keep this fight on the feet where he should thrive. My worry is that GARCIA will drag him to the ground and submit him or pound him out. I’m leaning KLOSE in this match up but I don’t have enough confidence to actually bet him at chalk so this is a stay away for me.

HAMDY ABDELWAHAB+105(3-0)VS DON’TALE MAYES-125(9-4): 

I was originally going to pick MAYES here but I’m way too leery of his opponent who is an Olympic caliber wrestler from IRAN that throws hammers,  hence “the hammer” nickname.  I’m thinking about taking the plus money dog shot on ABDELWAHAB but at 3-0 he might be entirely too green for me to trust him at the UFC level.  What’s more is that all of his fights are extremely quick finishes so there’s no telling how he will look if he gets extended into the later rounds. HOWEVER I have to believe that an Olympic caliber wrestler has the cardio to go the distance but seeing is believing as they say so until I see it I will remain skeptical. That said  I would not be the least bit surprised to see ABDELWAHAB starch MAYES in the opening seconds of the fight. MAYES has the edge in experience and he will be the bigger man but I have a feeling that ABDELWAHAB will be on task come fight night and for that reason I am going to take a small poke at the plus money on his ML. It is a risky play but ultimately I think that ABDELWAHAB’S wrestling pedigree and power make him worth the plus money dog shot against MAYES who is a middling heavyweight that has already lost twice by submission in the UFC. My thinking is that ABDELWAHAB will have a significant grappling advantage here and that he should be able to land big power because of said advantage. So my pick is ABDELWAHAB, I will be playing his ML and I will have a small play on him to win by KO. Hopefully he rises to the occasion and proves himself to be a legitimate threat in the HW division.

 

DREW DOBER-220 (24-11) VS RAFAEL ALVES+185(20-10):

I think DOBER is the right side in this one, but I can’t overlook the jiujitsu skills and the powerful striking that ALVES brings to the table here.  The problem with ALVES as I see it though is that he might fade quite drastically the later this fight goes which is not a good look against an experienced striker like DOBER. I think this will be a close fight that could very well be a split decision so for that reason I have to say it’s a dog or pass scenario but ultimately I am not overly confident on either side so this is another pass for me but I think I would probably be more inclined to take the plus money dog shot on ALVES IF I were to actually bet it. It would be more a “value” play though because I am never comfortable betting against the likes of DOBER. So my pick is DOBER but this is a no bet. However I do think the “value” is on ALVES. 

 

ALEX MORONO+145(21-7) VS MATT SEMELSBERGER-170 (10-3):

I’m gonna be on SEMELSBERGER in this match up. I think he is the more well rounded fighter here and that he is a far superior striker than MORONO. FULL DISCLOSURE: I have a soft spot for MORONO because he won me a DFS tournament when he KO’D Donald “Cowboy” CERRONE way back when,  but this is a “what have you done for me lately” sport and I just don’t think he will be able to impose his will on SEMELSBERGER here. I will be playing the SEMELSBERGER ML and I might use him in a 2 fighter parlay. 

 

MAGOMED ANKALAEV-435 (17-1) VS ANTHONY SMITH+350 (36-16):

It’s pretty hard to bet against ANKALAEV no matter who he is facing. He has shown us his elevated skill level on multiple occasions and he is widely regarded as a potential future champion by almost everyone in the industry. However he did fall prey to the dreaded PAUL CRAIG TRIANGLE earlier on in his career and his last outing against THIAGO SANTOS was a boring lukewarm decision victory that was unimpressive in my opinion. My concern here is that SMITH is constantly undervalued and I am guilty of underestimating him on more than one occasion so while I do think you have to pick ANKALAEV to get it done here there is no way I can play him at these odds against an experienced veteran like SMITH who can beat absolutely anyone in the division on “any given Saturday night “. My pick is ANKALAEV but at these odds this is a dog or pass scenario in my opinion and when it comes to betting against ANKALAEV I think it’s probably wiser to just pass.

 

ALEXANDRE PANTOJA-155 (24-5) VS ALEX PEREZ+135(24-6):

This is a very difficult fight to predict in my opinion. Both fighters are extremely talented veterans of the game and both are capable of neutralizing the other “on any given Saturday night “. Ultimately though I have to pick PANTOJA for the win here. I think he has the more well rounded skill set and he has been more active than PEREZ who has had multiple fights canceled for a variety of reasons. This is a very close fight in my opinion so I’m probably not going to bet it. I don’t think either guy can be counted out by any means here but I do lean PANTOJA for the win. 

 

DEREK LEWIS-120 (26-9) VS SERGEI PAVLOVICH+110 (15-1):

I think PAVLOVICH will have the speed and skill advantage in this HW matchup but LEWIS will undoubtedly have the edge in terms of power and size. This is another fight that could prove to be very difficult to predict with any degree of accuracy.  The variance at heavyweight cannot be overstated, especially when we’re dealing with two top tier fighters like this. Some books have this one lined as a true pick ’em which speaks volumes about the inherent unpredictability that is on the table here. However I have a sneaky suspicion that TAI TUIVASA may have inflicted some irreversible damage on LEWIS when he KO’D him in their last outing and that LEWIS could very well have a cracked chin as a result of that brutal KO. Mind you this is only a theory so it’s not like we can confidently write off the “Black Beast” here but at plus money I am willing to take the dog shot on PAVLOVICH’S skill and speed. So without a great deal of confidence I am going to have a small play on the PAVLOVICH ML but I might entertain a small hedge play on. FDGTD if that prop is juicy enough. LEWIS’ sheer size and power should never be overlooked or undervalued which makes a dog shot on PAVLOVICH extremely sketchy but I think it’s a calculated risk that could pay dividends.  Especially if I’m right about LEWIS’ chin being compromised. I will not pick a winner here because I think this one can go either way but I will be taking the “value” dog shot on PAVLOVICH and I will also have a small play on FDGTD which will cover a Lewis  finish.

 

BRANDON MORENO-200(19-6-2) VS KAI KARA FRANCE+170 (24-9):

I am going to be firmly on the MORENO side in this one because I think he is the superior fighter here but I’m not counting out KARA FRANCE by any means. In fact I think he is very live for the upset in this spot and I expect that quite a few MMA gamblers are licking their chops at the plus money that the bookies are hanging on him.  I just think that MORENO’S grappling is a little more advanced than KARA FRANCE’s and while KARA FRANCE probably has a slight edge in the striking department it is negligible at best. MORENO will likely be the bigger man here and I think he is probably the more savage fighter in this match up. On paper this is another close fight but I think MORENO gets it done here as long as his chin holds up so I will be using him in a 2 fighter parlay and hope that he proves me right. 

 

AMANDA NUNES-275(21-5) VS JULIANNA PENA+230 (12-4):

This main event has to be one of the most anticipated rematches in UFC history and I really do not know who I should be backing here. I am one of those people who genuinely thought that PENA had a good chance of pulling off the upset in the first fight but I didn’t have the rocks to actually bet against NUNES which I view as shameful blight on my MMA gambling career. As much as I don’t want to make the same mistake and overlook PENA twice I don’t think this fight plays out the same way the first one did. I think NUNES comes prepared for war this time around and I think she re-asserts her dominance over the bantamweight division. There is a part of me that wants to take the shot on PENA but I think that ship has sailed. I will not be betting this fight because I can’t trust NUNES at chalk and I’m very skeptical about PENA’s chances of catching lightning in a bottle twice in a row against a woman who is arguably the pound for pound best female on the planet. I could be way off here and this might be a case of PENA having NUNES’ number but I am not willing to risk it. I will be rooting for the underdog here because like everyone else I love an underdog story but my brain won’t allow me to bet against NUNES even though she lost the first fight in devastating fashion. I think she had an uncharacteristic bad night and that she might have been looking past PENA the first time around but I don’t think she will allow for a repeat of what was one of the biggest upsets in MMA history. 

Whatever happens here I expect this to be a very dramatic main event that will likely have everyone watching on the edge of their seats. Sweaty palms and pounding hearts will be in full effect for this one and I cannot wait to see how it plays out. 

This card as a whole is a very sound PPV offering from the UFC that has some very promising match ups throughout. Hopefully this helps you navigate the MMA betting landscape and hopefully my reads are correct.  Whatever happens I believe we are in for some very exciting high level fights that are sure to entertain. 

As always fade me or follow me at your peril and above all enjoy the gift that is mixed martial arts at the highest level. This should be another great night of fights.

Frank Jodouin

Contributing Analyst

I started betting on fights in 2016, and have watched every single fight on every live event for almost seven years running. To put it plainly, I am a fight junkie, and Dana White is my dealer. I write content because I'm so passionate about this sport and I am honored to be a member of the We Want Picks team. I love to talk fights and share the knowledge I have accrued over the years as I continue to learn about the greatest the sport on planet earth.

Related Content

UFC Vegas 61 Quick Picks and Betting Guide

UFC Vegas 61 Quick Picks and Betting Guide

We are back for another Apex card which is basically a "layover" before we head into yet another break week. I went 7-6 on my RFQP predictions first Vegas 60 and basically broke even on all of my betting/DFS action but perseverance is key when it comes to snapping...

UFC Vegas 60 Complete Breakdown and Betting Guide

UFC Vegas 60 Complete Breakdown and Betting Guide

This is the 23rd edition of RAPID FIRE QUICK PICKS wherein I will give you my picks and actual bets for UFC VEGAS 60: SANDHAGEN VS YADONG.  I served up an appallingly embarrassing 2-7 stinker on last week's RFQP for UFC 279 which cost me $274 and left me asking...

UFC 279 Quick Picks and Complete Betting Guide

UFC 279 Quick Picks and Complete Betting Guide

UFC 279 is on deck and I daresay there appears to be some great spots that we can exploit from a betting standpoint. A Lot of people will complain because there are no title bouts on this PPV offering and because it features a lot of lesser known debuting fighters. ...

UFC Paris: Gane vs. Tuivasa Complete Betting Guide

UFC Paris: Gane vs. Tuivasa Complete Betting Guide

This is the 21st edition of RAPID FIRE QUICK PICKS and we are coming off a successful UFC 278 card. I effectively went 8-3-1 on my predictions but to be fair that number is a little skewed because I played the value and bet against some of my own picks. The bottom...

Loading...