UFC 288 has been chopped and changed quite a bit, with a few bouts unfortunately being canceled. Nonetheless, I am super excited for the upcoming PPV which features the return of an arguable combat sports GOAT in Henry Cejudo as he looks to reclaim his spot on the bantamweight throne against the surging Aljamain Sterling. I see a lot of betting value on this card and it should be a fun one, let’s get into it!
BEST BET #1 | Gilbert Burns H2H @$1.64
2023 looks like it could be the year of Gilbert Burns. In January, he finished Neil Magny in the first round. 3 months later at UFC 287 he retires Jorge Masvidal, and now is stepping in on short notice at UFC 288 in this 5 round co-main event opportunity which appears to be a title eliminator against Belal Muhammad.
Belal has a 5 round friendly style where he can typically outpace his opponents, but Gilbert is in shape and matches up really well stylistically. Belal will look to initiate clinch sequences against the cage and land some dirty boxing techniques, but he cannot threaten the takedown because Gilbert is super slick on the ground. Gilbert has developed significant power in his strikes, and I feel that he is more threatening wherever this fight goes.
Belal did have success against a similar opponent in Burns’ friend Vincente Luque, but I feel that Gilbert can avenge his teammate by getting his hand raised against Belal, and then calling out for the next title shot at 170 pounds.
BEST BET #2 | Charles Jourdain H2H @$1.50
Kron Gracie has a wealth of BJJ experience, but has not fought MMA since his unanimous decision loss to Cub Swanson in 2019. I fear that his lack of activity might haunt him as he fights the up and coming Charles Jourdain, the innovative striker out of Canada.
Jourdain has exceptional movement which will help him keep this fight on the feet, where he has a significant advantage. I see Jourdain putting on a striking clinic in this bout, as long as he avoids grappling exchanges.
BEST BET #3 | Drew Dober H2H @$1.45
I love that the MMA have gotten behind Drew Dober and see this fight as one of the “can’t miss” matches on this card. He is a slick striker that is extremely durable and has drastically improved his wrestling and grappling throughout his long UFC tenure which spans over 20 fights.
Frevola loves to trade and is also good to watch, but I believe Dober lands the cleaner strikes and gets the best of the exchanges on the feet.
VALUE PICK #1 | Henry Cejudo H2H @$1.95
Henry Cejudo returns from his retirement just 3 years ago after defending his belt against the arguable bantamweight GOAT in Dominick Cruz at UFC 249. Typically, I do not like picking fighters with such extended layoffs, but Henry is an exception.
Aljamain Sterling has a funky style of grappling, and is very unorthodox on the feet. Being an olympic gold medallist, I see Cejudo constantly denying Sterling’s attempt to bring him down to the mat, and I do see Cejudo having more success in the stand up and in clinch situations.
If Aljamain can get Henry’s back, it will likely lead to a submission. And I understand many will believe Henry’s striking and timing will not be the same after such a long layoff. However, Henry’s fight IQ is among the best of all time, and I truly do believe he can find more paths to victory than Sterling will be able to, which is why I am very bullish on the even odds we are getting on the market.
Overs or Unders
We had a perfect 9-0 on our round totals last week, let’s see if we can continue our hot streak!
Thanks for tuning in once again, I hope you all enjoy the fights this weekend! If you are having a bet this weekend make sure you do your own research and gamble responsibly.
